Yesterday the New York Times released its report on the impact of the surge in Baghdad's disparate neighborhoods. The conclusions were not encouraging. Essentially, the Times found modest gains in the security of the city, but that much of the reduction in violence could be explained by the homogenization of the city's districts. Further, the paper found that the "city's underlying sectarian dynamic" had not been fundamentally changed by the increase in troops. Allahpundit focuses on this quote:
Lt. Col. Steven M. Miska, deputy commander of a brigade of the First Infantry Division that is charged with controlling northwest Baghdad, said, "We've done everything we can militarily."
He said, "I think we have essentially stalled the sectarian conflict without addressing the underlying grievances."…
Still, there is real progress being made in the security sphere. In particular, the Times report mentions the Mansour district as the scene of significant gains, though it casts doubt on the correlation between the progress and the increase in U.S. forces. But Kimberly Kagan has started a new series of reports analyzing progress in each of Baghdad's major districts and finds a far more complex situation--and one in which the increase in forces is making a difference:
The ongoing Baghdad Security Plan has made a significant impact in Mansour despite continued attacks. Although sensational bombings have occurred frequently during the past seven months, sectarian killings, kidnappings, and overt clashes between rival militias have diminished. As a result, Iraqis that fled between 2003 and 2006 are returning to the district to open shops, rebuild schools, and reconvene neighborhood councils. This progress was faster in some neighborhoods than others, but has gained momentum throughout the district since the final "surge" troops arrived last June.
Combat Outpost Casino, in Ghaziliyah, produced results quickly. By February 5th, two weeks after the JSS became operational, "the sectarian posses had disappeared, their freedom of manoeuvre curtailed." Despite initial skepticism, local Iraqis began providing forces at the outpost with valuable information in early March. On March 2nd, for example, coalition troops captured a large weapons cache "as the result of a tip from a resident." Similarly, on July 21st, U.S. and Iraqi forces captured a member of Al-Qaeda in Iraqi suspected for running a terrorist media cell.
Coalition forces had similar success in Mansour's Yarmouk and Hateen neighborhoods. In April, while carrying out Operation Arrowhead Strike 9, the 5th Brigade, 6th IAD, and the 1st Infantry Division's 2nd Brigade Combat Team cleared all the trash piles and abandoned vehicles from Yarmouk, cleared homes and business, and discovered several weapons caches. U.S. and Iraqi troops followed this highly productive effort in July with a two-day operation called "Patriot Strike," cleared more than 500 homes in Hateen and Yarmouk. Endeavors like these allowed Hateen's Neighborhood Advisory Council (NAC) to reconvene and discuss infrastructure improvements. Soldiers from the 32nd Artillery Division, attached the 1st Infantry Division, also helped Iraqis renovate Yarmouk's NAC and Hateen's Al-Tameen Kindergarten. Both have scheduled re-openings.
There's a lot of interesting information in there, and it serves as a useful counterweight to the analysis by the New York Times. You can click here to get to Kagan's neighborhood reports.
