It's been clear for a while that the Democratic party is seriously divided over what to do about Iraq. There are essentially no Democrats who support the war in Iraq, and very few who truly support the broader war on terror. But while there's strong opposition to the current anti-terror agenda, there are deep divisions about whether to act on them. The Netroots and a minority in Washington think that acting on their convictions is the right way to go, but the leadership in Washington views it as political suicide.
With that backdrop, it's no surprise that the Netroots are eager to challenge sitting Democrats in primaries. CQ Today reports:
House Democrats are peeved and Republicans are quietly delighted by warnings that anti-war groups may back primary challengers against Democrats who hesitate to directly challenge President Bush's Iraq policy.
The threat of primary fights next year reminds congressional Democrats that as they search for a way to deal with the war, they must be mindful that part of their party's base demands nothing less than a full legislative effort to get U.S. forces out of Iraq...
No primary challenges have yet been announced, but possible targets mentioned by anti-war organizers include five-termer Brian Baird of Washington, six-termer Ellen O. Tauscher of California, eight-termer Albert R. Wynn of Maryland and freshmen Joe Donnelly of Indiana, Hank Johnson of Georgia and Jerry McNerney of California...
MoveOn.org says it will announce on Sept. 24 the results of an online poll that asked its members whether the groups should back primary challenges.
In discussing primary challenges to sitting Members of Congress, some on the left have said that they will focus their fire on Democrats in safe seats -- seats where a more liberal candidate would have no problem keeping the seat in the Democratic column.
With that in mind, it's worth looking at the list of potential primary targets. Respected election analyst Charlie Cook rates seats based on their 'Partisan Vote Index' (PVI). It reflects the average performance of a Democratic and a Republican candidate in the district. Joe Donnelly's seat has a PVI of +4 Republican. Jerry McNerney's is +3 Republican. Brian Baird's seat is rated '0' -- a pure tossup. The seats of Tauscher, Johnson, and Wynn are considerably safer.
But if the anti-war Democratic base flexes its muscles, Republicans will likely be the beneficiaries.
