Jed Babbin and McQ of QandO tackle Speaker Pelosi's decision to schedule a vote on HRes 106, a resolution to recognize the Armenian Genocide. Babbin notes the obvious--Democrats who have been unable to end the Iraq war directly, now seem to have found a way to cripple the military effort indirectly:
Congressional Democrats anxious to force a withdrawal of American forces from Iraq are frustrated by their inability to muster a veto-proof majority for legislation that would establish a firm date for retreat. But what they cannot do directly they are now working hard to do indirectly.
According to Defense Secretary Robert Gates, Incirlik Air Base near Adana, Turkey is the transshipment point for about 70% of all air cargo (including 33% of the fuel) going to supply US forces in Iraq. Included are about 95% of the new "MRAP" -- mine-resistant, ambush-protected -- vehicles designed to save the lives of American troops. Turkey wasn't always this helpful. In 2003, the Turks refuse permission for the 4th Infantry Division to enter Iraq through Turkey.
Turkey's Erdogan government has indicated that if the House of Representatives takes action on a non-binding resolution being pushed by Speaker Pelosi, Turkey might revoke our ability to use Incirlik as a waypoint for Iraq supplies.
NRO's Jim Geraghty, who lived as an expatriate in Turkey for two years, says that the Turkish government isn't issuing empty threats--passage of the genocide resolution will be a serious blow to the bilateral relationship:
First, reject any argument you hear that the Turks will get over this quickly, or that they will soon realize that they need us more than we need them. For starters, right now it's entirely possible that we need them more than they need us - for use of Incirlik Air Base, for efforts against al-Qaeda in the region, for their troops in Afghanistan, for their continuing example that a Muslim country can be a functioning democratic Republic with free elections and free press, etc. (Turkey's political system is far from perfect, but it works for them, and it is eons ahead of the country's Arab neighbors.)
So passage of the resolution is likely to constitute a serious blow to the war effort. Was this foreseen by House leaders? Was it the motivation?
The answer to the first question is certainly 'yes.' This resolution has kicked around the House for years, and was almost voted on in 2000--until President Clinton pressed Speaker Hastert to postpone a vote, out of concern for the effect on the relationship between the United States and Turkey. In a hearing before the House International Relations Committee that year, the former Turkish Ambassador warned 'But above all, our cooperation on Iraq will inevitably suffer. The support for American policy in northern Iraq, already slim, will dwindle immediately...' Turkish diplomats have warned for years that this issue held the potential to seriously undermine cooperation on issues such as Iraq, Iran, Cypriot reconciliation, energy security, and a range of other matters. So House leaders certainly knew this measure could badly disrupt the Iraq war effort.
Was the scheduling of this vote a specific attempt to undermine the Iraq mission? Don't expect an answer to that question, but the vote has come up awfully suddenly.
In July for example, Congressman Adam Schiff--the sponsor of the resolution--was unsure when or if the resolution would be considered. As recently as a few weeks ago proponents of the bill were continuing to pressure Democratic leaders to bring the bill up for a vote. Then House Democratic leaders announce that they were moving the bill through committee and to the House floor with just one week's warning. Why the sudden move to a vote on the resolution, after delaying it for many months?
The actions in question occurred more than 90 years ago; why is the House suddenly going to vote now? Given that it's been clear for years the effect this bill will have on Turkey, and the inability of Congressional Democrats to end the Iraq war through any other means, it's hard not to put two and two together and get four.
