The Pew Research Center has released the results of its latest poll on Americans' views on Iraq and the state of the nation. The dramatically improved view of the situation in Iraq has attracted a great deal of attention--and rightly so. But Pew soft-pedals the good news in its summary, and you only get a sense of the depth of the change in opinion when you consult the full result.
Perhaps most telling of all is a question Pew doesn't mention in its summary. When given an open-ended question--'What one word best describes your impression of the situation in Iraq these days'--the number one answer is 'improved/improving.' Just two months ago, the top answer was 'mess.' It's clear something big is happening.
Looking further, Jules Crittenden relies on the summary, and points out that there has been an 18 point swing in favor of the Iraq war since February. But a look at the poll data from November 2006 shows a swing of 32 points. That's because in that poll, just 32 percent said things in Iraq were going well, against 64 percent who said things were not. Today the figure is 48 to 48.
Similarly, support for a timetable for withdrawal has fallen dramatically--from 19 percent support in January to just 11 percent today. Remember that the next time a Democrat claims that the American people support their approach.
Another interesting finding: Americans increasingly believe that we are succeeding in preventing Iraq from being used as a base for terrorist attacks against the United States. In November 2006, respondents said by a margin of 39 to 49 that we were not: today, 51 percent say that we are--against just 36 percent who are skeptical. That's a 25 point swing in favor!
On preventing a civil war and defeating the insurgents, there are similarly huge shifts. Across the board, the data show a significant growth in confidence about how the war is being waged.
What of the lack of movement in support for bringing the troops home? On that, I think Crittenden gets it exactly right:
Count me in that 54 percent. I want the troops to come home, too. After we win these wars. After their tours as part of the ongoing US-Iraqi strategic alliance are up. Much as troops come home every day from Germany, Japan and Korea. Who are these people who don't want soldiers to be able to come home anyway?
The end result of all this improvement? The poll shows Americans have dramatically downgraded Iraq as a priority. In the detailed summary, Pew breaks down the top priorities of voters based on whether they relate to foreign policy or the economy. In January, foreign policy led the economy by a margin of 50 to 15. Today it's just 40 to 31. The percentage of voters identifying Iraq as the most important issue has fallen from 42 to 32. The rising issues include the economy, health care, and unemployment.
The poll also includes interesting data on domestic politics. Most notably, Congress is almost exactly as unpopular today as it was before the 2006 election. In October 2006, 35 percent approved of the job Congress was doing, compared to 53 percent who disapproved. The result today is nearly identical: 35 to 50. This is yet more proof of the continued inability of Congress to deal with issues of importance to Americans.
Republicans have also seen a significant rebound in partisan identification. When voters were asked a year ago--right before the Democratic sweep--to state whether they considered themselves Republican, Democrat, or Independent, they answered Democrat by a margin of 25 to 36. Now, the edge is just 28 to 33. The Democratic edge has been reduced by more than half.
If this poll is accurate--and there's nothing in it that seems out of line with other polling data--there has indeed been a dramatic improvement in the public's views of Iraq and the Democratic leadership in Congress.
