After a summer and fall in which the press was filled with accounts of Muqtada al Sadr's power in Iraqi politics, Sadr and his Mahdi Army have essentially dropped off the radar. Other than brief mentions about Sadr's declaration of a cease fire and its impact on the security situation, there has been little news from the Sadr sphere. Over the weekend, the Sadr camp dropped a bombshell and stated the ceasefire may not be renewed.
The news was explosive, but not because the Sadrists said the ceasefire might end--Sadr has intimated he may not renew the ceasefire in the past. The story was that the Sadr camp admitted it was being "targeted" by the Iraqi Security Forces, the New York Times reported on January 20.
"Many officers in the Iraqi police and army and have made bad use of the freeze to pressure our people, and hundreds of families have been pushed out of their homes," Mr. Obaidi [a spokesman for Sadr] said. "We've been thinking of renewing the freeze. We understand the situation, we are in a period of trying to rebuild Iraq and bring more security, but unfortunately our people are suffering."
The decision to consider lifting the freeze came after a fact-finding tour by several high-ranking members of the Sadr organization in which they visited Samawa, Diwaniya, Kut, Amara and Basra, according to Mr. Obaidi. He said that for Mr. Sadr to remain credible with his followers, he has to stand up for them when they become targets.
Critics of the Iraqi government and the security forces like to point out that the military and police are dominated by groups like the Badr Brigade, which have been integrated into the security forces. Clashes between the military and Sadr's Mahdi Army are inaccurately described as intra-Shia violence.
But the fact is that Badr and other Shia groups decided to join the government of Iraq, and are carrying out the policies of that government. Sadr's Mahdi Army has taken support from Iran and seeks to undermine the government.
Sadr's spokesman is admitting that the Shia-led government is targeting the Shia Mahdi Army, which is backed by Iran. If Sadr drops the cease fire, this would be tantamount to declaring war on the government. This would destabilize the improving security situation, but would allow the Iraqi government and U.S. forces to shift focus from al Qaeda to the Mahdi Army. Sadr's six month ceasefire expires in February, while a drawdown of U.S. forces is not likely to begin until April.
The Iraqi Army and police have moved significant forces to the Shia South over the past several months to deal with the security vacuum created by the British drawdown in Basrah. Well over a division of troops have been moved to the South.
The Iraqi Army and police badly beat back the cult-like Soldiers of Heaven uprising last weekend. The Iraqi defense ministry said 272 members of the Soldiers of Heaven were killed, wounded, or captured during recent clashes in Basrah and Nasiriyah. These were well-armed, fanatical fighters looking to bring on the Shia version of the apocalypse. This has not gone unnoticed by Sadr.
