The recent scandal over the offensive views expressed by Ron Paul (or by others in his name) has deservedly attracted a great deal of attention. But however much outrage the revelations may cause, they're unlikely to have any significant effect on Paul's presidential campaign. He wasn't going to be the nominee before; he won't be the nominee now. And it matters little in the grand scheme of things whether he earns 12 percent or 5 percent in any given state.
But while Paul's presidential campaign may not be affected, his political career might suffer a fatal blow anyway. That's because less than two months from now, Paul will face two Republican challengers in the primary for his Congressional seat. One of the two--Friendswood Mayor Pro Tem Chris Peden--was regarded as a serious threat before the controversy. And now his candidacy has received the sort of boost that money can't buy.
There appears to be a significant base of support for a challenger to work with. While Paul had generally avoided primary opposition, he was challenged in 2006. His opponent then was singer Cynthia Sinatra, who was best known for being formerly married to Frank Sinatra, Jr. (or not). Ms. Sinatra went down on primary day by a lopsided margin of 78-22.
But if a gadfly candidate could win 22 against Paul even before the controversies he's brought upon himself with his current presidential run, what could a a real opponent do now? Clearly Paul will have an extraordinary money advantage, but this race is not one he can win with money. His constituents have seen him on the national stage, and will either re-elect him (warts and all) or reject him. No amount of advertising can change most people's views of a politician that they now know extremely well.
Rather, they'll decide whether they want to be represented by the presidential candidate they've seen so much of in the last year, or a traditional, conventional conservative. Unless the Ronulans are willing to move to Texas en masse, he's probably in serious trouble.
