According to the exit polls, Mitt Romney seems to be exceeding expectations. Let's start with a few states Romney is going to lose and we always knew he was going to lose.
• In New York, Romney trailed in the Real Clear Politics average by 31 points. The exit polls show him losing by only 11.
• In New Jersey, Romney trailed in the RCP average by 26. In the exit polls he's down 13.
• In Connecticut, Romney trailed in the RCP average by 22. In the exit polls, he's down 18.
None of this northeast overperforming is going to help Romney as far as the delegate count goes. But if it indicates a national trend of Romney exceeding expectations, we could be in for an interesting night.
Now let's look at a couple of the more competitive states:
• In Missouri, the RCP average had McCain 34%, Huckabee 29%, Romney 26%. The exit polls have it Romney 34%, McCain 32%, Huckabee 25%. Needless to say, it would be huge for Romney if he scored a surprise victory in a winner-take-all state like Missouri. It's also critical for Romney's survival that he produce a surprise victory or two rather than just a bunch of surprisingly impressive silver medals.
• Somewhat stunningly, the exit polls show Romney within 5% of McCain in Arizona. This is a little ironic since the Boston Globe, without any statistical evidence, ran a piece last week suggesting Romney would have trouble holding onto his home state. (He isn't. Exit polls show him up 20 in the Commonwealth). And yet McCain's home state could actually be a competitive race.
There is, however, a fly in the exit poll ointment for Romney - the very early first wave out of California shows Romney trailing McCain, 40% - 36%. (What? Zogby wrong? I'm shocked!) Even though California is a proportional representation state, Romney pretty much needs a victory there tonight. It's worth noting that it would be unsurprising if Romney over-performed everywhere except for California.
A couple of additional thoughts to hold us until new numbers come out: Romney has to do two things tonight - he has to keep the delegate count reasonable while establishing enough momentum that McCain is no longer the presumptive frontrunner. In other words, he has to exceed expectations dramatically. That didn't seem particularly likely a few days ago. It seems much more possible now.
