I recently had the opportunity to speak with Jim Ogonoswki, a Republican candidate who's seeking to face off against John Kerry in his Senate re-election bid this year. Last year Ogonowski waged a surprisingly strong special election campaign in Massachusetts' 5th Congressional district -- strong enough that state and national Republicans eagerly sought his entry into the Senate race this year.
The plain-spoken Ogonowski will offer a strong contrast with the patrician Kerry, whom Massachusetts voters seem eager to replace. Further, Ogonowski makes a strong case that Kerry is more a resident of Washington than of Massachusetts, and that he's ineffective and out-of-touch. He points out that Kerry wouldn't take a position on the Cape Wind project out of fear of alienating Ted Kennedy. Ogonowski says voters complain that they never see Kerry in the state, and rarely hear back from him on issues of concern. How effective is Kerry in getting things done for the state? In his 24-year Senate career, he has gotten 8 bills signed into law (two of which were World Population Awareness Week).
Ogonowski's message seems well-catered to the prevailing political climate. He complains that Washington doesn't work, and is unresponsive to the needs of the people. He tells me that when Kerry endorsed Barack Obama, and cited the need for change in Washington, he realized "there's one thing I agree with John Kerry on." He stresses the need to achieve energy independence ("35 years ago I sat in gas lines with my dad, and we still don't have a plan.") He believes that we went into Iraq with insufficient troop levels, but that the change of course is making a difference. He says we need to let our troops do their job, then bring them home. He stresses the importance of achieving border security. And only when I bring up the war on terror does he talk about how September 11 touched his life directly.
How good are Ogonowski's chances? It's s steep hill to climb -- there are few states bluer than Massachusetts, and Kerry has more than $10 million to spend on his campaign. At the same time, Ogonowski points out that 55 percent of Massachusetts voters are independents, that John McCain will do better than most Republicans in the state, and that he can tap an established web of state donors (as well as people nationwide who dislike Kerry) to fund his campaign. Further, Ogonwski is an attractive personality, who started from scratch in his Congressional race and nearly pulled off a surprise.
Plus, the results of a poll by Ogonowski's primary challenger Jeff Beatty show that voters in the state aren't just disappointed with Kerry in the abstract -- they're willing to vote for a Republican challenger, as well. That gives state Republicans a real chance to beat Kerry, even if it may be a longshot.
