This Gallup report on Wednesday morning caused a few Democrats to lose their donuts. It found almost one out of three (28%) of Clinton supporters say they would support McCain if Obama were the nominee. Let's call them the Benedict Arnold Caucus.
But who are these potential partisan turncoats? Are their answers to pollsters mere grousing or permanent pique? And have we seen this kind of behavior in previous elections? Some believe the traitor talk is overblown.
Yesterday Gallup followed up with a more detailed analysis demonstrating Democratic leaning independents (39%) and self-identified Democratic conservatives (38%) were the primary culprits, saying they would vote for McCain if Obama were the nominee. Blacks (15%) and self-identified liberal Clinton supporters (18%) were the least likely to defect, the report observes. These numbers are consistent with this piece by David Paul Kuhn in yesterday's Politico, suggesting the McCain campaign is considering a major offensive to attract Reagan Democrats back to the GOP if Obama were to win the nomination.
The Gallup report also suggests the Benedict Arnold contingent is bigger within team Clinton. The poll finds that, on average, Obama supporters across various subgroups are less apt to defect than the Clinton partisans. According to Gallup,
The percentages of Democratic voters who support Obama for the nomination but who would vote for McCain if Clinton is the nominee are lower across most subgroups than is the case for Clinton supporters…This is a reflection of the basic finding that Obama supporters are less likely to abandon their preferred party and vote for McCain -- even if their candidate does not get the Democratic nomination -- than is the case for Clinton supporters in the reverse scenario (19% of Obama supporters would vote for McCain if Clinton is the nominee, compared to 28% of Clinton supporters who would vote for McCain if Obama is the nominee).
Read the full Gallup demographics of desertion report here.
But are these traitorous traits signs of real problems or temporary political annoyance? Won't these Democrats ultimately come back to the fold? Political scientist Brian Shaffner posts this bubble buster for anyone hyperventilating too much about the Gallup results. "Following Bush's victory in the 2000 primaries and McCain's exit from the race, the Pew survey found that 51% of those who backed McCain during the primary campaign would vote for Gore in the general election." And this initial disloyalty knew no partisan bounds, Shaffner adds. Even the Gore supporters looked like deserters. Shaffner notes "…a significant share of Bradley [Gore's principal rival in 2000] supporters also said that they would be supporting Bush in the general election, including 39% of his independent backers." He suggests the Clinton supporters will come home and support Obama after the requisite amount of electoral wound licking and political forgiveness occurs. Read the full post here.
