Stu Rothenberg poses that question today in Roll Call:
It's remarkable that, with all of the bad news for Bush and the GOP, the huge crowds that Obama is generating at events, the undeniable Democratic surge in turnout in this year's primaries and the horrendous state of the Republican brand just nine months before Election Day, McCain is even competitive with Obama in recent polling, let alone ahead in a couple of surveys.
Indeed, last week I spoke with two smart, extremely levelheaded political consultants - one Republican and one Democrat - who told me separately that he/she (let's not narrow the possibilities) believed McCain would defeat Obama for the White House in November.
At this point, that seems a bit of a stretch to me, but that's not the point. Given the national mood and images of the parties, Obama should be leading McCain regularly in national polling by10 to 15 points.
In the latest Diageo/Hotline poll (the only one that I can find which has posed the question recently), the generic Democrat beats the generic Republican in the presidential race by 11 points. In the most recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll (in mid-December), Americans favored Democratic control of Congress over Republican control by 14 points. It's therefore a safe bet that Americans prefer the Democratic party -- at least in the abstract -- by 10 points or more.
John McCain is consistently running significantly ahead of the Republican brand. The latest polls show him beating Clinton and Obama as often as he loses. As we get closer to the election, the question becomes whether McCain 'rubs off' on Congress, or the other way around. Republicans need to make sure that to the greatest extent possible, they identify with the candidate and stay out of his way.
