From David Brooks's column today:
Last week, an important Clinton adviser told Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen (also of Politico) that Clinton had no more than a 10 percent chance of getting the nomination. Now, she's probably down to a 5 percent chance.
Five percent.
Let's take a look at what she's going to put her party through for the sake of that 5 percent chance: The Democratic Party is probably going to have to endure another three months of daily sniping. For another three months, we'll have the Carvilles likening the Obamaites to Judas and former generals accusing Clintonites of McCarthyism. For three months, we'll have the daily round of résumé padding and sulfurous conference calls. We'll have campaign aides blurting "blue dress" and only-because-he's-black references as they let slip their private contempt.
For three more months (maybe more!) the campaign will proceed along in its Verdun-like pattern. There will be a steady rifle fire of character assassination from the underlings, interrupted by the occasional firestorm of artillery when the contest touches upon race, gender or patriotism.
Admittedly, this all sounds delightful to me. But I dont subscribe to the theory that a tough primary fight necessarily wounds the eventual nominee. I hail from the alternative school, believing that the steeliest candidates emerge from the hottest fire. The most bruising primary fights create the most battle-ready nominees.
The fact that the Pastor Disaster came up now rather than in October is to Obama's great benefit. His initial handling of the affair was inept; even now, he hasn't found a way to convince swing voters that this matter shouldn't concern them. (Please note: Andrew Sullivan is not a swing voter.) Because of how fiercely contested the Democratic primary has been, Obama now has seven months to road test disingenuous explanations for his association with Wright. While the relationship will harm him, he'll surely come up with something better than he has to date.
While John McCain spends the next five months safely out of the media's firing range and cosseted by adoring sycophants telling him how wonderful he is, Barack Obama will be having his soft spots probed and learning where he has to improve. While this journey won't alter Obama's fundamental weaknesses (a fondness for blather over action, past actions and inactions that don't square with his rhetoric), Obama will be stronger for having been in the arena for such a long stretch of time.
