Pundits will ponder this question in great detail over the next several months. The Monkey Cage links to useful research on the issue and includes new data and preliminary insights from this year's exit polls. Dissatisfaction among those on the losing side represents one factor that could influence Democrats' general election performance. Will the disgruntled losers stay home--or even vote for John McCain?
Most exit polls this year have included a question asking supporters of each candidate in the Democratic primaries "how disappointed they would be" if the other candidate were to win the nomination. While the question doesn't get to the issue of staying home in November or defection to McCain, comparing the level of "dissatisfaction" between Obama and Clinton supporters is interesting. Could higher dissatisfaction among supporters of one side or the other spell trouble down the road, depending on who gets the Democratic nomination? It looks like the Clinton folks might be a little more upset with an Obama win than the other way around.
A couple of excerpts from George Washington University political scientist Lee Sigelman, one of the writers at The Monkey Cage:
Overall, Obama's supporters have expressed less dissatisfaction at the prospect of having Clinton at the top of the ticket than vice-versa...
Since Super Tuesday (February 5), Obama's supporters have expressed greater dissatisfaction about a potential Clinton nomination than they were doing before then--again, presumably as a result of Clinton's attacks on their favored candidate. For Clinton's supporters, there has been little movement over time in their dissatisfaction with Obama's possible nomination...
