It seems that Democrats are in full bore chase-Hillary-out-of-the-race mode. Are they eager to see her quit the race because she may wind up the leader in votes cast in the Democratic primaries, or despite it?
These two projections, if they come to pass, seem likely to cause maximum pain among the superdelegates. Clinton will be able to claim a lead in popular vote. But only because of Puerto Rico-and because Puerto Rico this month replaced its caucus with a primary. Obama will be able to claim a lead in pledged delegates. But only because he gamed the caucuses better. His lead in caucus-selected delegates is currently 125, as best I can calculate it; that would mean Clinton would have a 35-delegate lead among delegates chosen in primaries. Both sides will be able to make plausible claims to be the people's choice.
Read the whole piece to see Barone's assumptions. The conclusion rests on his accurately estimating the victory margins in the 9 remaining Democratic primaries. The final tally is close enough that a small deviation could flip the total to Obama. However, if Clinton wins the popular vote, then she has an inarguably legitimate claim to superdelegates that they would be following the people's will in selecting her. If she can make a plausible electability argument -- and all indications are that she can -- then the stage could be set for a surprise from the superdelegates.
If Barone's math turns out to be accurate, Howard Dean is in for a world of trouble.
