Speaker Pelosi won't admit it, but if the House backs her recommendation to indefinitely postpone the consideration of the U.S.-Colombia Free Trade Agreement, then the accord is dead for the foreseeable future. That's because the decision removes the single most important driver for support of trade agreements: the knowledge that a vote will take place by a specific date, no matter what.
Under the rules of Trade Promotion Authority, once the president submits an agreement to the House and Senate, it must receive an up-or-down vote within 90 days. No amendments are permitted, and neither are any delays. Speaker Pelosi is preparing to strip the timetable from the law, so it does not apply to the Colombia FTA. Even Pelosi cannot claim that this is consistent with House rules -- she says "it's sort of in-keeping with the rules of the House".
Pelosi claims that the reason she's indefinitely deferring a vote is that if it came up for a vote today, it would lose. But the fact is, the vast majority of Reps. commit their votes only when the schedule forces them to. Why should they anger labor or the business community unless forced to? Only when a vote is scheduled do most elected officials come off the fence.
By deferring the vote, Pelosi has taken away that urgency permanently. Once the Democratic leadership demonstrates a willingness to do the unprecedented -- and cancel a vote that was previously set in stone -- there's no reason for them not to do so again. Members of Congress will now be able tell advocates of the agreement that they're still considering both sides of the argument, and that it would be irresponsible to take a firm stand without knowing what the region may look like when the agreement is voted on.
Make no mistake: if the House ratifies Pelosi's decision -- as it likely will -- then this Colombia Free Trade Agreement is dead. This is an important victory for Hugo Chavez and America's enemies in Latin America, and a serious blow to our staunchest ally in that critical region -- and Mark Penn
