Pennsylvania voters might produce a surprisingly close outcome in today's Democratic primary. The buzz in Washington from several Democratic operatives I talked to yesterday suggests Team Obama is fired up and ready to over perform.
"They're putting out the word they won't win, but it will be close," a veteran Democratic operative told me. And in this expectations game, "close" is a win, especially since Clinton needs a 8-10 point win to keep her narrative alive. They must see something in their tracking numbers that suggests the race has tightened.
Jeanne Cummings's piece in Politico yesterday supports this view. She looks at the surge in voter registration over the past four months and some evidence that much of that increase is tilting toward Obama.
According to the Secretary of State's office, since January about 217,000 new voters have registered for the April 22 primary, the vast majority of whom signed up as Democrats. In Philadelphia, by far the state's largest city, more than 12,000 new Democrats were added to the rolls in the final week before the March registration deadline, compared to just 509 Republicans. That statewide Democratic surge has been accompanied by a flood of party-switching. More than 178,000 voters have changed their party status since January--and the Democrats have captured 92 percent of those voters.
Cummings also reports a Pennsylvania survey of new registrants and party switchers by pollster Terry Madonna with a distinct Obama tilt:
(It) found that Obama was the preferred candidate for 62 percent of them. Clinton insiders said they are also bracing for the same 60-40 split among newly registered Democrats. Depending on turnout, Madonna said, those newcomers could help Obama cut a Clinton victory margin by 2 to 3 percentage points and keep her below a double-digit win that would breath new life into the hard-fought race.
Looking at other recent polling, this view has some merit. Five out of the last six Pennsylvania polls at Real Clear Politics show Clinton below 50%. With 10%-14% "undecided" in these polls, the New York Senator would have to perform extremely well among late deciders to achieve the 8-10 point win many pundits believe she needs to stay alive.
So look for the late-deciders in the exit polls tonight. If Senator Clinton gets less than half, Obama may still lose, but score an important symbolic victory. Remember, closeness counts in horseshoes, hand grenades, and unexpectedly close Pennsylvania primaries!
