We keep hearing that Muqtada al Sadr has gained the upper hand after fighting "bogged down" in Baghdad and Basra. Time magazine has led the charge on this front. The April 15 article titled "Al-Sadr Tightens the Screws" epitomizes the tone of Time's coverage in Iraq. "Sadr's Mahdi Army has effectively stopped an advance by U.S. and Iraqi forces into its strongholds in Baghdad and Basra after weeks of fighting" writes Mark Kukis. "Sadr's political power appears to be growing even as the crisis wears on." These are difficult arguments to make considering:
a) Sadr called for a cease-fire in Basra and Baghdad just as the Iraqi Army began to push reinforcements into the troubled areas.
b) The Iraqi government decided to prevent political parties from participating in the upcoming provincial elections. Sadr's spokesmen were in a near panic and admitted they were politically isolated as the continuum of Shia, Sunni, and Kurdish parties backed the measure.
c) Iraqis troops have pushed through at least three of the five of the Mahdi Army strongholds in Basra.
d) Iraqi and U.S. troops now occupy the southern third of Sadr City.
e) Sadr has issued a series of demands, insisting that the Iraqi military pardon those who deserted during the recent fighting and halt military operations lest he call for a third uprising. The Iraqi government has not pardoned the soldiers and police, nor has it stopped military operations.
f) Sadr called for a million man march in Najaf, then moved the march to Baghdad, then canceled the march. He claimed the military was interfering with his supporter's movement but his recent marches have been less than stellar, drawing at most 10,000 supporters.
The latest bit of news from Iraq shows the Sadrist political movement is desperate to end the advance in Sadr City. Voices of Iraq reported that the Sadrists has asked former Prime Minister Iyad Illawi to mediate a cease-fire with the U.S. military. "Sadrist bloc lawmakers called on [me] two days ago to mediate with U.S. troops to cease military operations and to stop the concrete walls siege imposed on Sadr city for over a month," Illawi said at a press conference in Baghdad, referring to the barriers being put up to partition the city to allow Iraqi and U.S. forces to stabilize the neighborhoods.
It will be interesting to see how this latest move by Sadr will be spun into a moment of triumph.
