The first rule about handicapping Congressional races is not to assume that just because Congress is unpopular, individual Members of Congress are endangered. If you mistakenly made that assumption, you might think that just because the Democratic Congress is held in historically low esteem by the voters, individual Members of Congress are threatened for re-election.
This year, the Democratic Congress sees its ratings in the toilet, and Republicans face tougher re-election fights:
When respondents were asked whether they favored their local representative (who was cited by name) in an election against a generic candidate from the other party, voters represented by a Democratic incumbent favored the Democrat, 2 to 1. But those surveyed in Republican districts were much more open to throwing out their incumbents: While 53 percent said they would re-elect their GOP incumbent, 43 percent said they would vote for the generic Democratic challenger.
No wonder more than 60 percent of the DC Republican leaders polled by National Journal now believe that they will lose somewhere between 1 and 20 seats in the House this year. And if the election were being held today, they probably would. There's no question that things need to change dramatically for the GOP between now and election day.
