The general consensus seems to be that last night's results settled the Democratic nomination fight. But I'm not exactly sure why that is.
For months now--since South Carolina--it has been pretty obvious which states Obama would win and which Clinton would carry. It seemed clear all along that Obama would win North Carolina comfortably and that Clinton would take Indiana by a close margin. And that's what happened yesterday. So why all the talk about how the race is finished now? Look: If you believed that the nomination fight was signed, sealed, and delivered before yesterday, that's a perfectly reasonable position and the results only confirm your theory. After all, because of the way Democrats apportion delegates, the pledged delegate lead has been out of Clinton's reach since early February--something everyone watching the campaign has long understood. But if you thought that Clinton had a small, but viable, chance to sway superdelegates at the convention by making the case of a popular vote victory, then I'm not sure how last night changed anything. And look where we go from here:
Next week is West Virginia, which Jay Cost suspects Clinton could win by 20 or 30 or even 40 points. The week after that we have Oregon, which should be a narrow Obama win, and Kentucky, which should be another sizable Clinton victory. And then, looming on June 1, is the Puerto Rico primary. No one really knows what to expect, but it's not out of the realm of possibility that Clinton could roll up another very big victory there, given her past performance with Latino voters and the large number of Puerto Rican constituents she has in New York. Also, Puerto Rico might have a surprisingly large turnout.
In other words, it's not clear how yesterday changes anything. The candidates performed roughly to expectations and the next three weeks are going to be a gauntlet for Obama as he gets clobbered in one place after another--all while being touted as "The Nominee." What has been Clinton's gambit since February--her attempt to be leading at least two of the popular vote counts by the time of the convention--will finally be given the chance to mature as she has a string of contests with very favorable demographics. It seems to me that there's no reason for her to quit now and every reason for her to stay in the race. And that this gambit has as much chance of succeeding today as it did on Monday.
Maybe I'm missing something?
