Closing the "enthusiasm gap" is John McCain's major hurdle in the next several months according to Republican leaders and political strategists I talked to last week. Barack Obama's supporters are more fired-up, confident, and interested.
CBS News polling director Kathleen Frackovic wrote a piece last week that makes some comparisons about the "gap" in the 2004 presidential race.
She notes that John Kerry had a similar enthusiasm problem, a deficit that lingered throughout the race:
In late July, 2004, even AFTER that year's Democratic Convention and before the Republicans met, John Kerry's supporters were a lot less committed to their candidate than supporters of George W. Bush were committed to theirs.
How does Team McCain build enthusiasm? It's a complicated question with more than one answer. One of the solutions, however, is to not lose sight of the Republican base. True, it's been shrinking. But research suggests Republican partisans are the place to start building excitement. They are attentive earlier in the process, more apt to participate and most likely to pass their enthusiasm on to others in their communities. One problem with consciously going after independents right now is that few pay a lot of attention to politics during the summer months. Moreover, independent leaning Republicans (a group the GOP has to win back) listen to these stronger partisans. I wrote a piece about wooing these independents by energizing partisans in the Washington Times.
There is a lot at stake in this election and McCain needs to communicate that to build more enthusiasm among his supporters. Thinking about how he can do that with the Republican base is key. They strongly support him in terms of vote preference, but need to ratchet up their intensity level. From the McCain campaign's perspective a challenge easier said than done. The Republican convention is a great place to urge the most loyal supporters to ratchet up the enthusiasm--it will infect others and pull them along.
