Polls from several battleground states show McCain gaining traction this past month. Just consider Colorado, Virginia, and Michigan. In July, every Colorado poll put Obama in the lead. In August, only one does, and the average of three others show McCain up by two. Polls from Virginia illustrate the same trend. In June and July, all but one showed Obama leading McCain. Now McCain is tied or up in every statewide poll. Even in states McCain is not yet dominating, he seems to be making progress. In Michigan, Obama is still in the lead, but the size of his lead has been cut in half. Ohio remains close as well.
Florida provides an exception to this trend. McCain's lead in Florida has shrunk from a substantial 5+ percent to a trivial lead within the range of error. Just consider Rasmussen's tracking showed McCain up by 7 percent at the end of June, but had Obama up by 2 percent by the end of July -- for a change of -9 percent. So what's going on in Florida?
Obama didn't even campaign in the state during the primaries (pursuant an agreement by the candidates), but it seems likely he would have been trounced by Hillary Clinton even if he had. The shift in the polls might be attributable to the fact that Obama has already spent $5 million in advertising in the state, while McCain has not dropped a dime. Another explanation could be that the state polls simply show the election is getting close. Obama may no longer have commanding leads in certain battleground states, but perhaps neither does McCain.
