In yesterday's Washington Post article by Dan Balz and Peter Slevin, Obama's chief strategist David Axlerod argued McCain's post-convention bounce in the national polls was driven by the Republican ticket's surge in red states.
"I think one of the things driving the national polls is that the red states are redder," said David Axelrod, one of Obama's closest advisers. "In the battleground states, the race has held pretty firm."
Political Scientist Charles Franklin was skeptical. He tested Axlerod's conjecture by examining the most recent state level polling and found McCain's recent gains extend well beyond the red states.
Franklin writes:
Among the strong Republican states, McCain has gained more than 8 points over Obama since shortly before the conventions, turning a 14 point lead into a 22.5 point margin, a huge gain.
Among the strong Democratic states, the effect of the conventions is a tiny 2 point move in McCain's direction, from an Obama lead of 12 points before to 10 points now.
But the rest of the states, rated lean or toss up, have also shown movement. These swing states had a 1.5 point Obama lead before the conventions, and that has now turned into a 3 point McCain lead, a 4.5 point shift.
Clearly, despite Axlerod's argument and wishful thinking, the McCain/Palin gains extend beyond traditional GOP bastions. And based on the closeness of the current battleground states, a 4 point shift--if maintained--could tilt the map in enough places for McCain to garner the 270 electoral votes needed to win.
See Franklin's charts and read his entire analysis here.
