In his New York Times column, Bill Kristol takes a look at McCain's chances:
What if the polls, for various reasons, are overstating Obama's support by a couple points? And what if the late deciders break overwhelmingly against Obama, as they did in the Democratic primaries? McCain could then thread the Electoral College needle.
McCain would have to win every state where he now leads or is effectively even in the polls (including North Carolina, Indiana and Missouri). He'd have to take Florida and Ohio, where he's about four points down but where operatives on the ground give him a pretty good shot. That gets him to 247 of the 270 votes needed.
McCain's path to victory is then to snatch Pennsylvania (which gets him to 268), and win either Virginia, Colorado, Nevada or New Mexico (states where he trails by about four to seven points) - or New Hampshire, where he's 10 points behind but twice won dramatic primary victories.
As for Pennsylvania, two recent polls have McCain closing to within four points. Pennsylvania is the state whose small-town residents were famously patronized by Obama as "bitter." One of Pennsylvania's Democratic congressmen, John Murtha, recently accused many of his western Pennsylvania constituents of being racist. Perhaps Pennsylvanians will want to send a little message to the Democratic Party. And that could tip the election to McCain.
It's an inside straight. But I've seen gamblers draw them.
Ed Morrissey notes that the last batch of battleground polls from Rasmussen now shows the race essentially tied in Ohio and Florida as well as North Carolina and Missouri, while McCain trails Obama by four points in Colorado and Virginia:
* Colorado - Obama leads 51/47, after last week's 50/46. Within the MOE, but not much movement.
* Florida - McCain lead 50/49, after trailing 51/47 last week. Definitely moving towards McCain.
* Missouri - Dead heat at 49 all, after Obama led 48/47 last week. Movement to McCain.
* North Carolina - McCain 50/49, after being up 49/48 last week.
* Ohio - Tied at 49, after Obama led 49/45 last week. Movement to McCain.
* Virginia - Obama leads 51/47, same as last week.
An alternative path to victory for McCain without Pennsylvania is to win all of the states listed above plus Nevada. During the Democratic primaries, Hillary Clinton did 3 points better on election day than she did in the final Real Clear Politics averages of polls for Ohio and Pennsylvania. It's possible that McCain might outperform the polls in Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada by four or five points.
And, of course, McCain would only need one of those three states if he pulls off an upset in Pennsylvania, where he's currently trailing by 7.6 points according to RCP. But remember that Hillary Clinton was down by 8 points in New Hampshire before she eked out a dramatic 2 point win in the Democratic primary.
The race isn't over. Go vote.
