One day after Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki's cabinet approved the proposed U.S.-Iraqi status of forces agreement, Iran is signaling it is changing its tune on supporting the pact. From the Associated Press:
Iran and Syria, longtime adversaries of Washington, have said an immediate withdrawal of U.S. forces would be the best solution for Iraq, fearing threats to their security and regional influence. Iraqis sought to allay their fears, amending the pact with the ban on cross-border attacks from Iraq.
On Monday, however, Iran's judiciary chief, Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, said the Iraqi Cabinet acted "very well" in approving the pact. The Web site of Iran's state television quoted him as saying he hoped the U.S. will withdraw from Iraq within the time specified in the deal.
"The Iraqi government has done very well regarding this," he said. "We hope the outcome of (the deal) will be in favor of Islam and Iraqi sovereignty."
Shahroudi is very close to Iran's top leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his comments reflect thinking of conservatives within the ruling system, but not all hard-liners or President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Hard-line outlets, which have said the pact would "turn Iraq into a full-fledged colony" and urged Iraqis to oppose it, remained adamant. "Iraqi government gave in to American capitulation," read a front-page headline in the hard-line daily Jomhuri-e-Eslami newspaper Monday.
So why is the Iranian leadership making a sudden change on this act? Nothing has changed substantially; U.S. forces will not be immediately withdrawing from Iraq, and from all appearances, the changes in the draft after Maliki sent the agreement back to the United States are minor.
At first glance, it appears Iran is looking to save face for its failure to sabotage the deal. The U.S. military said Iran was attempting to bribe Iraqi members of parliament, but this failed. Iran has used Muqtada al Sadr and his Sadrist movement as a proxy to protest the agreement, but this failed to gain traction with the wider Shia parties. The Iraqi cabinet approved the final agreement nearly unanimously; 27 cabinet members voted in favor, one abstained and nine were not present (some of them are thought to be traveling overseas). It is believed the Iraqi parliament will approve the agreement; the three major Sunni, Shia, and Kurdish blocks in the cabinet voted in favor of the measure. Even Ayatollah Ali al Sistani, the senior most Shia leader in Iraq, signed off on the deal.
Iran is yet again in danger of ending up on the wrong side of an important issue pertaining to Iraq's security. Last spring, Sadr's Mahdi Army and other Iranian-supported "Special Groups" were roundly defeated by the Iraqi security forces after they attempted to seize power in Basra and tried prevent the military from entering Baghdad's Sadr City. Iran likely doesn't want to repeat this mistake.
