In the summer of 2007, Jonathan Rauch published an article in The Atlantic making the case for a long presidential campaign. The long campaign would be a test for the candidates, Rauch argued, and would also allow the parties to form U.K.-style "shadow governments" ready to take over on January 20, 2009. Here's Rauch:
"Transition," as a description of what happens in the 11 weeks between Election Day and Inauguration Day, is the most optimistic euphemism in American politics. What really happens is a chaotic scramble to fill dozens of top government jobs. During this bumpiest passage in American governance, the ride would be smoother if a slate of senior officials-secretaries of state, defense, and treasury, the chief economic adviser, and so on-were standing by on the day after the election.
As it turns out, Obama has run an excellent campaign, making very few mistakes. (He's been helped by a press that has not scrutinized him all that thoroughly.) Obama 2008 joins George W. Bush 2000 and 2004 and Jimmy Carter 1976, among others, in the pantheon of well-run campaigns. We know how Bush and Carter turned out. As far as a shadow government, it is true that there are plenty of Democrats standing at the ready to staff an Obama administration. But that would have been true no matter how long the campaign had lasted. Both parties have a more or less permanent class of appointees and bureaucrats who rotate from government positions to roles in think tanks or nonprofits. Yes, if he upsets tonight, McCain probably would have trouble staffing his administration - at least with Republicans. But I have a feeling a McCain administration would be filled mostly with Democrats and independents.
It's worth revisiting why this has been a long campaign. The reason has nothing to do with when the primaries were scheduled. The early primaries were a symptom, not a cause. The cause is Bush. Starting with Hurricane Katrina, a large portion of the country simply wrote off Bush's presidency. That grew worse as the Iraq war worsened and the Democrats took Congress in 2006. As Jeffrey Bell has pointed out, Bush's dismal popularity has driven all politics ever since. It is the country's desire to move beyond Bush, as well as his lack of a successor, that has made this election last so long and propelled Barack Obama to the edge of the presidency. For these reasons alone, George W. Bush is one of the most consequential presidents in history.
No matter who wins today, Bush has only two-and-a-half months left as president. The Bush effect on American politics will vanish. His successor will determine the next debates, issues, controversies, and scandals. And he will likely be far more popular than Bush 43. The next campaign will not be as long as this one.
