Beyond the possibility of a war breaking out between India and Pakistan over the Mumbai terror siege, how might this event impact the security situation in South Asia? The short answer is the security situation in Pakistan's northwest could spiral out of control, impacting NATO's ability to resupply its forces in Afghanistan.
There were already rumblings that the Pakistani military may redeploy some or all of the 100,000 soldiers in the insurgency-wracked Northwest Frontier Province and the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan. The Pakistani army is outnumbered on its eastern border with India, and with the talk that the attack was launched from Pakistan, the military wants to reinforce its eastern front. The Pakistani military already maintains a tenuous foothold in the Taliban-dominated northwest; any movement of forces could tip the scales to the Taliban.
Even if the military doesn't leave the northwest, they are going to look to put an end to the fighting and reconcile with the Taliban. First, the military doesn't need the potential problem of a two-front war. Second, the military views the Pashtun tribesmen as "strategic depth" against the Indians.
We are already seeing evidence that the military wants to cool down its Taliban front. This weekend, the Pashtun tribes throughout the northwest have told the government they would back the nation in event of war with India. A tribal council in North Waziristan said that more than three million tribesmen could fight on the Indian front.
A senior Pakistani military officer responded by calling Taliban chieftains Baitullah Mehsud and Mullah Fazlullah "patriots" and the conflict was due to "misunderstandings." Baitullah Mehsud is the head of the Pakistani Taliban and a warlord in South Waziristan. Baitullah has defeated the Pakistani military in multiple battles the past several years. Fazlullah is the head of the Taliban in Swat, where the government has been fighting to regain control of the region for over a year.
Negotiations with the Taliban may be next. The past round led to the resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan and the expansion of al Qaeda safe havens in the Pakistani northwest. This round could serve to strangle NATO's vital supply line, most of which moves the Peshawar and Khyber in the northwest.
