Christian Brose has an excellent piece on FP's Shadow Government blog running through some of what he took away from the Munich Security Conference vis-Ã -vis our situation in Afghanistan. Brose emphasizes first and foremost that the war in Afghanistan can still be won, but he cautions that the road ahead will be difficult and costly. Brose also acknowledges the weaknesses of Hamid Karzai, and the Obama administrations legitimate frustration with him, but he warns against allowing the relationship to become too antagonistic given Karzai's rather solid grip on the reins there.
Also interesting, Brose sees the possibility for a real confrontation between Obama and Petraeus over how best to proceed in developing a new strategy over the next 12 months. Brose writes:
On a trip that left me more optimistic than I had been initially, one concern I take away is the tension that might emerge between Obama and Petraeus if the former wants to trim his sails and focus more on killing terrorists in Afghanistan while the latter wants to expand his efforts to foster population security. Not only would this be a tragic and detrimental outcome, it would be an ironic one: The general who Bush tapped in Iraq to jettison a losing counterterrorism approach in favor of a winning counterinsurgency strategy becoming the general who falls out of favor with Obama because he doesn't want to do the reverse in Afghanistan.
Obama was wrong about the surge, but he has long insisted that while he will set the mission as commander in chief, he will also show considerable deference to his commanders on how best to achieve that mission. If Petraeus and Obama can agree that this country must prevail in Afghanistan, then maybe Obama will see the wisdom in allowing Petraeus to determine the strategy. After Obama predicted in early 2007 that the surge would increase violence in Iraq, a little humility is certainly in order.
