Is Rudy Giuliani about to make the same mistake that doomed his 2008 presidential candidacy? Jacob Gershman reports in this week's New York that Giuliani hasn't declared his intention to run for New York governor in 2010 because, according to some advsiers, he "has to lull the Democrats into thinking he's not going to run, so they don't dump [incumbent Gov. David] Paterson and put Andrew Cuomo up instead, who would be a lot harder to beat." Giuliani is waiting until the moment is right.
Recall the 2008 Republican presidential primary. The frontrunner for most of 2007, that fall Giuliani decided not to pursue a full-on assault against rival (and friend) John McCain that could've driven the Arizona senator out of the race. Instead, the former New York City mayor adopted a late-primary strategy that banked on a victory in Florida to spur him to the nomination. It was a novel gambit, but it was also going to fail. Victory in the early caucuses and primaries - Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, chiefly - is what gets candidates the party nod. Giuliani hadn't learned from the history of failed rope-a-dope, late-primary-dependant campaigns. Thus he was doomed to repeat those failures.
Paterson, who became governor in March 2008 when Eliot Spitzer resigned in a sex scandal, is exceedingly unpopular. The most recent Quinnipiac University poll has his disapproval rating at a horrible 60 percent. The poll shows that Giuliani would beat Paterson if the election were held today, 53 percent to 32 percent.
But the Quinnipiac numbers make things complicated for Giuilani, because they also show that he would lose a contest against New York attorney general Andrew Cuomo by 17 points. There's speculation that New York Democrats could dump Paterson in favor of Cuomo, or that Cuomo could challenge Paterson in a primary. Giuliani probably doesn't want to start a losing battle with Cuomo. He's hedging.
That might be a mistake. According to Gershman, former congressman Rick Lazio, who lost to Hillary Clinton in the 2000 Senate election, has expressed interest in claiming the GOP nomination for himself. The longer Giuliani waits to declare his intentions, the more time Lazio has to establish himself as the Republican gubernatorial frontrunner. Lazio reportedly has already met with former governor George Pataki (who, interestingly, made a recent visit to Iowa).
The notion of replacing Paterson with Cuomo may be overblown. Despite being unpopular, the governor has important ties to the New York Democratic machine. And party elders could be loath to shove the state's first black governor aside for a non-minority candidate. Even if that does happen, the political climate in 2010 could still make things difficult for Cuomo. Giuliani has an opportunity to lead a Republican revival in the Northeast - the first step to returning the party to majority status. Why not seize it?
