CNN is helpful for the White House this morning, offering this banner on its Politics page:
One CNN prominent analysis is, "This time, all politics was local" by left-leaning pollster Nate Silver. He leads with the Conservative Party loss in NY-23 (the fault of conservative activists for not understanding the moderate needs of the distirct, he says), moves on to New Jersey (solely the fault of Corzine for being lame), and finally comes to Virginia (Hmm, maybe there's a case that an 18-point win for a Republican in a state Obama carried a year after his election has something to do with Obama.)
Silver's a smart guy who's right about a lot of things, but leading with a Congressional race that speaks to an internal GOP struggle in a race of extenuating circumstances rather than two huge gubernatorial wins (one of them almost entirely unexpected in deep-blue New Jersey where Obama has been campaigning aggressively) betrays his bias. I think he's right about Owens' grasp of local issues over Hoffman's, but Scozzafava was not the responsible moderate alternative the media says she is.
But even the New York Times is having trouble papering over the implications. Conclusion: the magic is gone.
The results in the New Jersey and Virginia races underscored the difficulties Mr. Obama is having transforming his historic victory a year ago into either a sustained electoral advantage for Democrats or a commanding ideological position over conservatives in legislative battles.
The coalition that swept him into the White House was absent on Tuesday night, with evidence that the young, African-American and first-time voters who supported Mr. Obama failed to turn out to help the Democrats Mr. Obama had campaigned for: Gov. Jon S. Corzine in New Jersey and R. Creigh Deeds in Virginia. (There are no exit polls in the upstate Congressional race to provide demographic information on the electoral outcome.)
Independent voters who had flocked to Mr. Obama in Virginia and New Jersey last year shifted on Tuesday to the Republican candidates in both states, Christopher J. Christie in New Jersey and Robert F. McDonnell in Virginia, according to exit polls in both states. That is a swing that will certainly be noted by moderate Congressional Democrats facing re-election next year, who may now be more reluctant to support Mr. Obama on tough votes in Congress.
Let's take a minute to recall whether the Democratic campaigns in New Jersey and Virginia wanted voters to think they had anything to do with Obama. Those flashbacks to '08 are brought to you by the Democratic Party.
But DNC head Tim Kaine has this to say about those races that had absolutely nothing to do with Obama:
Kaine said that both Democratic hopefuls, Creigh Deeds and Jon Corzine, were strong candidates, but faced uphill battles. Both states tend to vote for the party that is not in power in the White House in their off-year gubernatorial elections. "It would have been historic if not unprecedented to win one or both of these races given historical trends,'' he said.
Kaine downplayed the notion that these races were a referendum on President Obama.
"These races turned on local and state issues and circumstances and on the candidates in each race - and despite what some will certainly claim - the results are not predictive of the future or reflective of the national mood or political environment,'' he said.
Indeed, a Republican winning statewide election in New Jersey for the first time in 12 years was utterly expected, Gov. Kaine.
The Washington Post also inexplicably finds an Obama angle on this election that had nothing to do with Obama. The front-page online headline: "GOP wins reveal cracks in Obama coalition":
Off-year elections can be notoriously unreliable as predictors of the future, but as a window on how the political landscape may have changed in the year since President Obama won the White House, Tuesday's Republican victories in Virginia and New Jersey delivered clear warnings for the Democrats.
Neither gubernatorial election amounted to a referendum on the president, but the changing shape of the electorates in both states and the shifts among key constituencies revealed cracks in the Obama 2008 coalition and demonstrated that, at this point, Republicans have the more energized constituency heading into next year's midterm elections.
The most significant change came among independent voters, who solidly backed Democrats in 2006 and 2008 but moved decisively to the Republicans on Tuesday, according to exit polls.
Voters nervous about the economy and fed up with the political establishment dominated the off-year elections, sending a strong message to President Barack Obama, who won the White House as a change agent but has himself become the face of political power and incumbency.
So, even though voters did not overwhelmingly identify Obama himself as the reason they voted for Republicans, Obama's first year in office has created a national environment wherein Independents he won overwhelmingly in '08 are voting Republican in even Northern Virginia and New Jersey. A year after the Republican party had allegedly become a rump, regional party of the Southeast, it's back to winning Loudoun County (which Obama carried with 60 percent) and New Jersey. The momentum from such wins in quintessentially purple Virginia is carrying down-ticket candidates to victories, thereby strengthening the GOP's hold on the state legislature by five or six seats, which will in turn ensure McDonnell's legislative agenda gets passed and Republicans redistrict in their best interests.
When you've got all that, who needs a referendum? Moderates in Congress will still look at the results, see the Democratic Party bleeding Independents, see that Obama's charm will not be able to save them from electoral disaster, and be nudged closer to opposing something like a gigantic, risky health-care reform package written by Nancy Pelosi.
More reax below the fold, including DCCC head Chris Van Hollen predictably finding lots of import in NY-23 and none in New Jersey or Virginia.
Update: CBS' Schieffer compared conservatives to McGovern. Larry King lauds the "defeat of the far right."
NRSC head Jon Cornyn:
It's no secret that Election Days have been disappointing for Republicans in the last three years. But yesterday's victories for Bob McDonnell in Virginia and Chris Christie in New Jersey finally changed that trend and affirmed an emerging new narrative for the Republican Party.
Just one year after Barack Obama swept the electoral map in 2008, independent-minded voters in blue and purple states rejected the Democrats' tax and spend agenda, and reminded us that they are looking to restore much-needed checks and balances to government.
How far we've come in 12 months.
Michael Steele on New Jersey:
"Tonight, Chris Christie exceeded all expectations by charging to victory in the heart of Democrat country. I would like to extend my sincere congratulations to Chris on becoming New Jersey's next governor and in a special way I congratulate Kim Guadagno on becoming New Jersey's first lieutenant governor. Governor-elect Christie's message of lower-taxes and less spending clearly resonated with voters in New Jersey who were looking for a solution to Jon Corzine's failed economic leadership. There is no doubt in my mind that Chris and Kim will provide New Jerseyans with the direction they need and will finally make their state more affordable again.
"This election victory that by all accounts should have been a landslide for Democrats is a credit not only to the outstanding campaign that Chris ran, but to the incredible organization that the Republican Party was able to build in the state. Grassroots operations were set up and thrived in parts of the state that hadn't heard from the Republican Party in decades. In the coming election year, we will continue these investments and look forward to reaping the benefits on behalf of hard-working taxpayers.
"In a state that overwhelmingly voted in favor of President Obama, this stunning defeat of Corzine sends a clear message to Democrats across the country. Americans have grown sick and tired of big government and reckless spending, and this vote is a sound rejection of the far-left policies that are hurting our nation. While the White House sent their political machine to New Jersey in full force - President Obama and Vice President Biden each campaigning in the state 3 times - even that was not enough to convince voters to ignore the realities of their harmful liberal agenda. I fully expect this trend to continue in the coming months, and President Obama and Democrats should have reason to fear the upcoming elections in 2010."
"The first thing I think we all understand is that one year is an eternity in politics," Van Hollen said during an appearance on ABC's "Top Line" webcast. "So we have to be careful to not over-interpret these results."
"In Virginia and NJ, these were races where there were all sorts of local factors that were the driving considerations," the DCCC chairman explained. "I would say people need to be very cautious about drawing conclusions about the outcomes of the elections."
But Van Hollen said there were plenty of takeaways from the race in New York's 23rd congressional district, where Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman's insurgent candidacy forced Republican Dede Scozzafava out of the race, leading Scozzafava to turn around and endorse Democrat Bill Owens.
"I do think it's fair to draw conclusions from the fight that's already happened in New York 23," Van Hollen said of the turn of events this past week in the upstate New York race.
