Check out this Gallup article comparing job approval at the start of a president's second year in office. Obama is at 50 percent in the Gallup poll. Only Reagan, at 49 percent, started his second year with lower job approval. What's interesting is that President Clinton began 1994 with 54 percent job approval -- and ended the year with incoming GOP majorities in Congress.
Disclaimer: 2010 isn't 1994! Nevertheless, it's likely the Democrats will suffer losses in the midterms sufficient to immobilize the liberal policy agenda. And if Obama's approval falls to the mid- to low-40s, control of the House is up for grabs and Republicans could come close to holding 50 seats in the Senate.
One encouraging note for Obama: Clinton and Reagan, who started their second years poorly, were both reelected; George H.W. Bush (80 percent) and Jimmy Carter (55 percent) were not.