McCormack: Delegate Math
6:59 AM, Dec 11, 2007 • By JOHN MCCORMACK
Over at NRO, David Freddoso explores the possibility that none of the Republican presidential candidates will lock up a majority of delegates needed for the nomination, thus dragging the race out until the convention in September:
Freddoso then runs through a favorable primary scenario for Giuliani and does enough delegate math to make your head hurt. But if you pop a couple Advil and follow Freddoso's "guess-estimating" computations, it seems very plausible that Giuliani will not be able to win a majority of delegates unless he exceeds his own high expectations for Super Tuesday. Of course, Freddoso concedes that if any other candidates drop out before Super Tuesday, his calculations will be scrambled, though not necessarily in Giuliani's favor. It is a rough estimate after all.
One point about which Freddoso needn't express ambiguity, however, is whether or not the RNC will lift its sanctions docking 50 percent of the delegates from states that moved their primaries to dates earlier than allowed by RNC rules. According to an RNC official, the final call to penalize those states was made in November and will not be reconsidered.
That means that on January 8, New Hampshire will be awarding 12 delegates - only 3 more than Guam will select on February 16.
It also means Giuliani will be competing on January 29 for 57 delegates in Florida - not 114. That fact makes it highly unlikely that, absent earlier wins, Giuliani will emerge from Florida with a delegate lead heading into Super Tuesday.