Poll Effects
January 1, 2008
• By Matthew Continetti
Here's the Times's write up of the final Des Moines Register poll.
Two thoughts: First, looking at poll averages, the race in Iowa in both parties has tightened to the point where it is now too close to call. Predictions are meaningless - though, for what it's worth, Intrade has Obama and Edwards's combined chances at more than twice as likely as Clinton's. Mike Huckabee's Intrade edge over Mitt Romney is narrow when compared to Obama and Edwards's edge over Clinton, but it's still a 7-point advantage. Watching the trendlines, you'll note that there's been some late movement on the part of Clinton, Edwards, and Romney. Negative ads can work - no wonder why politicians don't like them!
Second: In the Times, Katherine Seelye notes that Dennis Kucinich has asked his supporters to back Obama on the second ballot. Seelye doesn't appear to think this is that important - "the depth of Mr. Kucinich's support is minimal," she writes - and maybe it isn't. But it's worth recalling that John Edwards's late surge and strong second-place finish in the 2004 caucuses was in some part the result of Kucinich supporters throwing their second-ballot support to the former North Carolina senator.
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