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1:02 PM, Feb 13, 2008 • By MATTHEW CONTINETTI

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For some reason, this David Leondhardt item was buried in today's Times business section:

"There have been six recessions since 1968, the year that the quarterly survey of economists began. At the start of each one, economists put the odds that the economy would shrink in the current quarter at 40 percent or more. ...

"In the latest survey, the forecasters also said there was a 43 percent chance that the economy would shrink in the second quarter of 2008. Every time that reading has risen above 40 percent, the economy has gone into recession."

Uh, oh.

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