Will the Baker-Hamilton Commission endorse the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq on a hard timetable? That’s highly unlikely. The president has flatly rejected withdrawal timetables, so it’s hard to believe Sec. Baker would go along with such a recommendation for this reason alone. What about tweaking the current strategy? That's also unlikely. The Commission isn’t going to release a report endorsing the same basic policies that brought about the Commission in the first place. So what then?

The two most revealing public comments about where it may be headed came from defense secretary nominee Bob Gates and Iraq War opponent Gen. Anthony Zinni. After his nomination was announced, a news story surfaced noting that, after a Baghdad visit, Gates was astonished that his soon-to-be predecessor had let the security situation deteriorate so badly. Thus, it’s a good bet Gates doesn’t believe things will getter better in Baghdad in the short term with fewer troops, especially given the conclusions on troop levels contained in this intelligence assessment published in today’s Washington Post. A bit after the Gates piece appeared, there was another news story in which Zinni publicly called for more forces in the Baghdad area to stabilize the downward spiral. I’ve also learned that at least one senior member of the first Bush administration not named Baker has been telling folks that we cannot leave Iraq in its current state and that a precondition for any U.S. drawdown must be a relatively stable Baghdad, which, this person believes, will require a surge in forces.

Merits aside, I suspect we may be looking at a call for more forces in the short term, combined with a regional conference (and possibly an Iraq-only one also) and an economic aid package of some sort aimed at the Sunnis, followed by a recommendation for a significant drawdown or redeployment thereafter, and the transformation of the remaining force to a largely advisory command. I also wager that there will be some vocal dissents -- in public and on background. Whatever the Commission does, President Bush alone will have to decide whether their report advances his often-stated objectives in Iraq or undermines them and act accordingly.