May 19, 2008 • Vol. 13, No. 34
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 Yesterday's suicide campaigns in Baghdad and Khalis led to the most deadly day since the beginning of the Baghdad Security operation. The Baghdad attack, where two suicide bombers detonated their vests in a largely Shia market, has resulted in 83 murdered, with another 138 wounded. The Khalis attacks led to another 70 killed, and scores more wounded.
Combined with Wednesday's suicide bombings in Tal Afar, which provoked off duty police and militia to conduct reprisal attacks against Sunnis, al Qaeda has been very successful in stoking sectarian fires with mass casualty suicide strikes. Stopping these attacks will be the Coalition's greatest challenge over the next several months.
“Al-Qaeda in Iraq elements once again displayed their total disregard for human life, carrying out barbaric actions against innocent Iraqi citizens in an effort to reignite sectarian violence and to undermine recent Iraqi and Coalition successes in improving security in Baghdad," General David Petraeus said today in a statement on the recent bombings.
“These horrific attacks demonstrated al Qaeda’s complete rejection of respect for life itself and the Coalition joins Iraqi leaders in condemning these latest acts of cold-blooded murder.”
A major success that has helped to keep sectarian tensions at bay (deaths in Baghdad are at the lowest rate since March of 2005) has been the sidelining of Muqtada al Sadr and the fracturing of his Mahdi Army. We've noted this process has been ongoing for almost a year, and the Sadr's flight to Iran has destroyed his command and control over the militia. "Sadr has had trouble both leading and controlling his movement from afar, [Pentagon Officials] said, as his absence has encouraged subordinates and earlier rivals to move in on his turf," the Washington Post notes today. "It's clear that he does not control all the organization. There are splinter groups that don't answer and won't answer to him, particularly since he is in Tehran now," a senior Pentagon official told the Post.
Stars & Stripes reports that elements of the Mahdi Army are filtering back into Sadr City in Baghdad, though the Mahdi Army fighters have not openly confronted U.S. forces inside Sadr's stronghold. While EFP [Explosively Formed Projectiles] attacks are increasing in some neighborhoods, overall the number of EFP attacks are down. U.S. forces just captured another member of an EFP cell in Sadr City.
While many view the splintering of the Mahdi Army as a negative, the fact is that the most extreme elements were never going to accept a political solution, as they answer to their Iranian masters. The more moderate elements are now free from Sadr and Iran's influence. The Mahdi split has weakened Sadr politically and has exposed his operation as an Iranian foil. Sadr has portrayed himself as an Iraqi patriot, but the longer he stays in Iran while the Iranian Qods Force cannibalizes his militia, the more his influence in Iraq will wane.
Sadr, for his part, has issued a statement through his representative in Najaf calling for Iraqis to protest on April 9, the date of their liberation from Saddam's rule. "I call on everyone to demonstrate on April 9 in Najaf on the anniversary of the US occupation," said Sheikh Abdul Hadi al-Muhamadawi during Friday prayers in Kufa. Sadr has put himself in the position of essentially defending Saddam Hussein.
Sadr continues to claim he is in Iraq, although he has not been spotted in the country since his flight to Iran on February 14, the day the official announcement of the Baghdad Security Operation was made. Another Sadr aide claimed Sadr was targeted for assassination in Kufa by U.S. and Iraqi forces. There is no evidence of this, and the U.S. maintains Sadr is still in Iran.
Much like the split in the Mahdi Army, the fault lines within the Sunni insurgency are now becoming apparent. The 1920s Revolution Brigades, which is one of the four most influential Sunni insurgent groups in Iraq, has now split into two factions: al-Jihad al-Islami (Islamic Jihad) Corps and the al-Fatih al-Islami (Islamic Conquest or Hamas). The Hamas branch has sided with al Qaeda in Iraq, while the Islamic Jihad faction opposes joining al Qaeda. Large elements of the 1920s Revolution Brigades in Anbar province have already thrown in their lot with the Anbar Salvation Council, which is actively hunting al Qaeda.
The splitting of the Sunni insurgency and the advancement of the reconciliation process is key to isolating al Qaeda and providing intelligence on the network. Coalition forces detained 11 al Qaeda suspects, including six near the Syrian border and five in Karma. Karma has been a hotbed of al Qaeda activity of late.
Flight magazine reports on the Joint Strike Fighter's "first manoeuvring flight tests, complete with full-stick rolls." The test went off without a hitch: "It worked exceedingly well," said F-35 chief test pilot Jon Beesley.
Below is the video, also posted at flightglobal. (FYI, the video may not work on browsers other than Internet Explorer--in fact, it may not work on Explorer either.) It looks like things are going well with JSF, but according to The DEW Line "the US military may not be able to enter full-rate production for JSF until two or three years after 2012, unless the program decides to lower the threshold for what the term 'full rate production' means." So looks may be deceiving.
 President Putin speaks often with his American counterpart, and the Kremlin's press service reports that the two leaders conducted yet another round of discussions yesterday regarding "cooperation…on current international issues.” Those issues included last week's U.N. Security Council resolution on Iran, the status of Kosovo, and American plans to deploy a missile defense system in Central Europe. As pointed out by the Kremlin, "the conversation took place at the initiative of the United States.”
The Russian media has largely interpreted President Bush's "initiative" as an act of gratitude after the United States was able to shore up Russian support for Resolution 1747, which stipulated "the international community's profound concerns over Iran's nuclear program.” But some Russian journalists seem to see an upside in a confrontation between the United States and Iran. Prominent journalist Mikhail Leontiev (who has been described as "the most unabashed champion of the Kremlin") asserts that "in principle, [Russia] is interested in drawing the Americans into the Iranian adventure. If the [U.S.] has gone mad, let them be punished." And today's Nezavisimaya Gazeta offers a more calculating analysis, pointing out that U.S. military action would disrupt Iranian oil deliveries through the Straits of Hormuz--the resulting rise in oil prices will "bring Russia tens of billions” the paper said.
The Putin-Bush "telephone diplomacy,” however, failed to resolve other outstanding disagreements. During yesterday's conversation, the Russian leader held his ground on Kosovo, noting that "Russia reaffirm[s] its position of principle that nothing should be imposed on either side." In an interview today with Rossiyskaya Gazeta, Deputy Foreign Minister Vladimir Titov echoed the president's sentiment, describing the Ahtisaari report, which was presented to the U.N. on Monday and recommended independence for Kosovo, as a "discussion process deliberately led to a dead end." Titov added: "Separatism, rewarded in Kosovo, will receive a strong impulse in other parts of the world.” In an interview yesterday with Rosbalt, Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica agreed: "Kosovo cannot be independent--and if someone tries to take it away from us by violating international law, Serbia will never consent to this."
The fog around the Tal Afar reprisal killings has cleared some since the Associated Press intimated the Tal Afar police force went on an organized rampage throughout the city following a devastating suicide attack that killed 83 and wounded another 104 civilians. In a conference call with Rear Admiral Mark Fox, the Multinational Forces Iraq Chief of Communication Division, he noted that 14 off duty police were among 18 arrested, and the police were local to the region. This was an action by rogue elements of the local police force, and not an event coordinated by the police command.
Rear Admiral Fox also noted the Iraqi Army responded quickly to stop the violence, and senior officials from the Iraqi government are en route to deal with the situation. RAdm Fox also noted the Iraqi Army prevented another large suicide truck bomber from striking in Tal Afar.
The Associated Press is now reporting that both Shia militiamen and off duty police were responsible for the murders, which have killed upwards of 70 Sunni, possibly women and children. The police were detained but later released, according to the governor of Nineveh province. The incident in Tal Afar highlights how al Qaeda's suicide bombings, particularly large truck bombs (this one contained over 7,000 pounds of explosives) can quickly ignite sectarian violence in the most seemingly calm cities. The situation in Tal Afar bears close watching.
Al Qaeda has conducted a major suicide attack at a Baghdad market, the first in about a week. Over sixty were killed in the dual suicide bombing at an outdoor market in a Shia area. Otherwise, attacks inside Baghdad continue to be low level roadside bombs or car bombs. Two police were killed in a roadside bomb attack, and another two were killed in a drive by shooting.
The majority of the large scale attacks are occurring in the provinces. The suicide bombings in Tal Afar was one such example. Diyala remains a hot spot. Al Qaeda conducted a series of bombings in the city of Khalis which killed over 40 and wounded 80. The targets included "a bank, a mosque, at a checkpoint and near a court."
Thousands of Al Qaeda fighters are said to have fled Baghdad for Diyala, and the Islamic State of Iraq has made Baquba its capital. Al Qaeda has been conducting a terror campaign to cow the local population and keep the tribes from supporting the government.
U.S. and Iraqi forces have been conducting a major clearing operation in Diyala against al Qaeda in Iraq and its Islamic State of Iraq political front. On March 28, 25 al Qaeda were killed and 15 captured during raids in the Diyala River Valley. Eight weapons caches have been discovered and destroyed.
Iraqi and Coalition forces have been busy over the past 48 hours interdicting insurgent and al Qaeda activites nation wide. Operations in Babil province, which is south of Baghdad, netted 38 suspected insurgents, five weapons caches and an IED.
During nationwide operations against al Qaeda's network, Coalition Forces (or Task Force 145 - the hunter-killer teams assigned to disrupting al Qaeda networks) captured 19 suspects during raids in Karma, Haditha, Baghdad and Fallujah on March 28. Another 4 were killed and 15 captured during raids in Mosul, Baghdad, Fallujah and Haditha on March 29.
Retired General Barry McCaffrey visited Iraq earlier this month to meet with senior commanders and to get a better sense of the situation on the ground. McCaffrey was hardly a proponent of the president's new strategy, and in January went so far as to call the surge a "fool's errand" in testimony to the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee, but McCaffrey's after action report explicitly endorses that strategy.
McCaffrey says of the current situation that "since the arrival of General David Petraeus in command of Multi-National Force Iraq--the situation on the ground has clearly and measurably improved." Further, he says "we can still achieve our objective of: a stable Iraq, at peace with its neighbors, not producing weapons of mass destruction, and fully committed to a law-based government."
And in closing, he denounces any effort to undermine the surge or political support for it: "We now need a last powerful effort to provide to US leaders on the ground--the political support, economic reconstruction resources, and military strength it requires to succeed."
Of course, McCaffrey's report also detailed some of the serious challenges facing Coalition forces in Iraq, and Thomas Ricks, the Washington Post reporter who authored the best-selling book Fiasco, focused largely on those in his story today. Under the headline "McCaffrey Paints Gloomy Picture of Iraq," Ricks painted his own gloomy picture:
"The population is in despair," retired Gen. Barry McCaffrey wrote in an eight-page document compiled in his capacity as a professor at West Point. "Life in many of the urban areas is now desperate." . . .
His report also lists several reasons for some new optimism, noting that since the arrival of Petraeus last month, "the situation on the ground has clearly and measurably improved."
Nevertheless, his bottom line is that the U.S. military is in "strategic peril"--a sharp contrast to his previous views. In 2005, he concluded in a similar report that "momentum is now clearly with the Iraqi government and coalition security forces." In a 2006 assessment, he wrote: "It was very encouraging for me to see the progress achieved in the past year."
There's something in McCaffrey's report for everybody, but one would have to be profoundly pessimistic--inclined to view the whole Iraq project as an unsalvageable "fiasco"--to report that the bottom line of this story is that the U.S. military is in "strategic peril." The bottom line is that progress is being made, our objectives are attainable, and we face serious challenges in the months and years ahead.
The French presidential elections, already taking place against the backdrop of last year's rioting in the suburbs of Paris, now have a further drama at their heart: the pitched battle yesterday at the Gare du Nord--a combined railway station and subway station in the heart of Paris. It all started with a routine ticket check of a 32-year-old illegal immigrant from the Congo. According to the interior ministry, the man has had "22 previous encounters with the police, many of them violent." He apparently reacted violently upon being asked to show his ticket and was being taken to a holding room within the station when almost 200 "youths" arrived to fight with the police. The station, an easy trip by metro from the suburbs where the rioting began 18 months ago, became a battlefield from 4 p.m. to 10 p.m.
All the candidates have now weighed in on yesterday's events. The Socialists of course used the occasion to denounce conservative candidate Nicolas Sarkozy’s record as Minister of the Interior--France's top law enforcement position--these last five years. Julien Dray, a spokesman for Socialist candidate Ségolène Royal, said the riots "illustrate the climate of tension, the violence, the gulf that now exists between the police and the population."
Sarkozy reiterated his well known, no-nonsense approach towards delinquency, declaring: "To arrest someone because he is not paying [his subway fare]--for years, no one cared about this, but it is the job of [the police] to do this." He jabbed back at the Socialists: "If Ségolène Royal and the left want to side with people who don't pay for their train ticket, that's their choice."
At best half-hearted supporters of the police, the Socialists now run the risk of being mistrusted by their voters, as in 2002, when Lionel Jospin got eliminated in the first round of the presidential election by ultra-right law-and-order candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen.
 A man tries to break a shop window during riots at Paris' Gare du Nord station on 27 March.
(AFP/Jacques Demarthon)
Three major events occurred inside Iraq over the past 24 hours that merit particular attention. First, in the Shia dominated city of Tal Afar, al Qaeda conducted a double suicide attack. Subsequently, off-duty Shia police are said to have rampaged through the city, conducting reprisal attacks, although the details on this report are still sketchy. Second, Harith al-Dhari, a leader in the 1920s Revolution Brigade, was murdered, highlighting the internal civil war in the Sunni community, and the battle against al Qaeda. And third, in Fallujah, al Qaeda conducted yet another chlorine gas suicide attack.
Yesterday's dual suicide strikes in Shia markets in Tal Afar appears to have been a major success for al Qaeda. The largely Shia city, which has been a model of governance and security in Iraq, had at least 63 of its citizens murdered. Al Qaeda, which has claimed responsibility for the attack, has struck at Shia civilians in the past in order to stir up sectarian violence. Yesterday's attack may have worked. While the news reports on this incident are still being sorted out, the initial reports indicated off-duty Shia policemen went on a killing spree in Sunni neighborhoods. Upwards of 60 Sunnis are said to have been murdered.
Again, this has yet to be confirmed. The Associated Press changed the initial headline on their report from "Enraged Policemen Go on Revenge Killing Spree in Northern Iraqi Town" to the more careful headline of "Shiite cops reportedly rampage vs. Sunnis" [emphasis mine]. During today's press briefing with Rear Admiral Fox, the press did not follow up his denouncement of the bombings or the reported incident, which is interesting. Later reporting indicates a militia may have carried out the murders. The Reuters headline is "Gunmen kill 50 in Iraqi town" and states a militia conducted the attack, though that militia may include members from the police force.
The Tal Afar police have been confined to their stations, and the Iraqi Army and Mosul police are said to be heading to Tal Afar to provide security. The Maliki government is investigating the incident.
The event in Tal Afar is a very serious issue that will reverberate throughout the Sunni community, particularly at a time when the government is seeking to reconcile with Sunni insurgent groups. Obviously, if the allegations as initially reported are true, al Qaeda was very successful in causing a backlash by the security forces. If the report is inaccurate--if this was a small element of the police, or perhaps police assigned from outside Tal Afar, or the actions of a local militia--al Qaeda still won an incredible propaganda victory.
Al Qaeda in Iraq has stepped up its campaign of terror and intimidation against the Sunni tribes in Anbar and beyond. Yesterday, al Qaeda murdered Harith al-Dhari, the sun of Sheikh Thahir al-Dhari, the leader of the al-Zuba'a tribe. Thahir's home was hit with a suicide bomb. Salam al-Zubaie, one of two deputy prime ministers and a member of the Zuba'a tribe, was wounded just days earlier when a suicide bomb was detonated in the courtyard of the mosque he was attending.
Harith al-Dhari, (who shares the name with the infamous Harith al-Dhari, his uncle and head of the insurgent-supporting Muslim Scholars Association), was a leader in the 1920s Revolution Brigades, a nationalist Sunni insurgent group. Elements of the 1920s Revolution Brigades are actively cooperating with the Anbar Salvation Council, the political and military front consisting of tribal leaders and insurgent groups.
As of last September, the leadership of 25 of the 31 Anbari tribes were cooperating with the government, while 6 tribes, know in some military intelligence circles as “The Sinister Six,” were aligned with al Qaeda. Two of the Sinister Six are the Albu Issa and the al-Zuba'a.
The Iraqi government, the Coalition, and the Anbar Salvation Council are actively working to split off the Albu Issa and the al-Zuba'a from al Qaeda's Islamic State of Iraq. The efforts are showing progress. The Albu Issa are turning on al Qaeda in the Fallujah region, while the al-Zuba'a, which have a strong presence in Abu Ghraib, Zaidon, and Fallujah, along with the 1920s Revolution Brigades, have begun to fight al Qaeda.
Al Qaeda has responded with a deadly murder and intimidation campaign in Anbar province, which includes a spate of chlorine gas suicide bombs. The goal is to terrorize the population, break the will of the Sunni resistance, and destroy the leadership of the Anbar Salvation Council and the Sunni insurgent groups. I've listed the major attacks against the Anbar Salvation Council and the Sunni tribes at The Fourth Rail.
The latest attack occurred just this morning. Al Qaeda launched a dual chlorine gas suicide attack against the government center in Fallujah. Fifteen Iraqi and U.S. security personnel were wounded in the blast, and dozens others were poisoned by the gas. This is the sixth detonation of a chlorine gas bomb in Anbar. Two other trucks were seized by Iraqi and U.S. forces in Ramadi. One was found just last night.
A ridiculous story from Roll Calll. Apparently the Dems are only setting a timetable for withdrawal as a favor to Bush--to give him leverage in dealing with Iraqi leaders. From the Roll Call:
But Senate Armed Services Chairman Carl Levin (D-Mich.) said that for all the president’s objections to setting a timetable for withdrawal, Bush actually has told him personally that it is “useful” for the Iraqis to hear that support in the U.S. is waning for a continuing troop presence in Iraq.
“What we’re doing here is giving [the White House] leverage with the Iraqi leaders,” Levin said, indicating that the president is using the Democratic “bad cops” position to pressure Iraqis to improve training and readiness of their own troops and security personnel.
Levin said that, despite the president’s private acknowledgments that the Democrats’ Iraq language is serving a constructive purpose, “he’ll veto it, because he wants to be the good cop.”
(HT Influence Peddler)
From USA Today: In Iraq vote, Congress is casting aside the Constitution, by David B. Rivkin Jr. & Lee A. Casey.
From the New York Post: Hostage Sailors--Britain's Impotence, by Arthur Herman.
From RIA Novosti: Putin's seven years in power, by Andrei Vavra.
From the Sydney Morning Herald: 'Guilty' puts end to the Hicks myth, by Miranda Devine.
From the Hill: Playing chicken on war funding, by John Fortier.
Update: Over at The Danger Room, Sharon Weinberger links to an English-language copy of the original report. And John at Op-For makes this excellent point: "I've always chuckled at references to China's "asymmetrical" military doctrine. We're the boys with the force-multiplying toys, and China's the one with the big honking Army. Aren't we the asymmetrical ones?"
I've been skeptical of reports that China is planning to deploy an aircraft carrier in the near future, perhaps as soon as 2010. But the rumor is persistent, and the Heritage Foundation's Peter Brookes recently wrote a compelling essay on why the rumors might be true. Said Brookes,
The existence of a Chinese “flattop” program has long been rumored. Sure, some experts scoff at the idea, pointing out that carriers don’t fit with China’s military doctrine of “asymmetry.” . . .
(Critics will point out that carriers have significant vulnerabilities. Jaunty submariners brag those 100,000-ton “bird farms” are nuthin’ but big, fat gray targets.)
So, if the experts are right, and China is pursuing a “David and Goliath” strategy against U.S. military might in the Pacific, why would Beijing build carriers?
First, it’s always possible the recent news is wrong--just another badly sourced rumor coming out of Hong Kong regarding Chinese military developments.
Second, Beijing could be changing its strategy. It might be looking toward a more balanced naval force that includes aircraft carriers to project power deep into the Pacific. (With its broad expanses of open ocean, there aren't many other ways to operate in the Pacific theater.)
A third option: China may want to “show the flag.”
China is, without question, a rising power--world’s largest population, No. 2 energy consumer, No. 3 defense budget, No. 4 economy. And so on. It’s an up-and-comer. Beijing may well think the time is ripe to proclaim to the world: We’re not just a regional power anymore.
I find this third reason particularly persuasive. The Chinese ASAT test earlier this year confirmed Beijing's asymmetric strategy, but it also signaled to the world that China was capable of waging war in space--that it was a military power on par with the Soviet Union and the United States.
An even greater indication of the Chinese desire to "show the flag" is that country's manned space program, which, like this country's manned space program, serves no other purpose than to demonstrate technological superiority and foster national pride. As the party organ People's Daily put it in February of this year under the headline "Why Does China Want to Probe the Moon?", "Sooner or later, China's gorgeous five-star red flag will tower on the moon, and days are not distant for the dream of the Chinese people to come true." Clearly, showing the flag is of some importance to the Chinese.
Now The Marmot's Hole links to this story from the very credible, if reliably left wing, Korean newspaper Hankyoreh Shinmun. According to the report, "China is secretly pushing the construction of a nuclear-powered 'supercarrier' of 93,000 tons." My Korean is a bit rusty, but The Marmot's Hole gives this synopsis:
Citing a source familiar with Chinese military issues, the Hankyoreh Shinmun is reporting that China is secretly pushing the construction of a nuclear-powered "supercarrier" of 93,000 tons.
The source, presenting internal Chinese Communist Party documents, said China plans to build a 48,000-ton conventional-powered aircraft carrier (so-called “Project 085″) and a 93,000-ton monster carrier (”Project 089″). The materials presented said China’s Central Military Commission had recently approved both projects and spelled out both vessels’ displacement.
I'd still contend that, as Brookes put it, Chinese carriers would be "nuthin’ but big, fat gray targets," but that doesn't change the fact that an aircraft carrier would boost Beijing's ability to project "soft power." And deploying a Nimitz-sized nuclear carrier would, like the ASAT test, show that China is to be considered a military superpower.
Again, Brookes:
As opposed to provocative exercises of "hard power" (such as China's January test of a satellite-killer), a friendly ship visit, while still displaying strength, does so in a "soft power" way (think: velvet glove around the iron fist).
 The Russian carrier Varyag, which is being refitted in the port of Dalian by the Chinese.
When the Chinese bought the ship from the Ukraine, they claimed it would be used in Macau as a floating casino.
Bayrou Surges
A recent IFOP survey shows that 61 percent of French voters trust neither the left nor the right. This generalized mistrust surely benefits the centrist presidential candidate François Bayrou, the so-called "new man in the middle," but it would be a mistake to explain it as a rebuke of the traditional political parties. Rather, support for Bayrou can best be understood as evidence of the French fascination with the revolutionary left. In fact, Bayrou calls his movement "revolutionary centrism” and chose orange as the color of his campaign, a clear reference to Ukraine's Orange Revolution. His official website is www.revolutionorange.org.
Further evidence of this fascination with the ultra-left: three of the sixteen candidates who have qualified to run for president are Trotskyites. Those candidates include José Bové, an anti-globalization sheep farmer, Olivier Besancenot, a 32-year-old Parisian mailman, and Arlette Laguiller of the Workers' Struggle party, who regularly denounces "capitalist exploitation" and the "decadence" of French society.
Sarkozy's Frankenstein
Just one month ago, as a coup de théatre, Sarkozy wrote a letter to the satirical weekly magazine Charlie Hebdo offering his support for the publication, which was on trial for inciting Muslim hatred by reprinting the famous Danish cartoons. The only problem: Sarkozy founded the aggrieved party that brought the lawsuit, the French Council of Muslim Cult, a CAIR-like association. With that organization, he created a powerful platform for extremism in an attempt to bolster his support among Muslims. Fortunately for France, the constitutional principle of freedom of speech was upheld when, last week, Charlie Hebdo was acquitted of all charges. Still, Sarkozy has been weakened by the whole affair.
His effort to woo Muslim voters has not been a total bust, though. “Sarkozy is a friend to Muslims” declared Khadija Ataf Khali, the president of the French Muslim Women's Union, in an interview with AKI (Adnkronos International). In fact, the statement is not so farfetched--many Muslim places of worship have opened in France as a result of Sarkozy’s efforts. His support for the public financing of mosques is well-known.
And on Wednesday, Alain Morvan, a top education official in Lyon, was fired for strenuously opposing the opening of a new Muslim school and for publicly complaining about pressures from Nicolas Sarkozy to stop his obstruction. Alain Morvan said he was "karscherized,” a reference to the pressurized-water gun of the trademark “Karscher” with which Sarkozy once promised to clean the Parisian suburbs. The controversy is further evidence of Sarkozy’s efforts to gain the support of French Muslims.
Hypocrisy on the French Left
On September 19, 2006, the French writer and philosophy teacher Robert Redeker published an opinion piece in Le Figaro criticizing Islamists for their violent attempts to stifle debate in the West. The issue was banned in both Egypt and Tunisia. A few days later, Robert Redeker received death threats from an Islamist website. It posted his address and a photograph of his home, thus inviting its audience to murder him. Despite the support he received from a group of renowned and primarily right wing intellectuals, who published an appeal to support him in Le Monde, a majority of government officials responded with silence and even hostility. Such disdain stands in stark contrast to the French left's support of Cesare Battisti. Battisti, a former member of the Armed Proletarians for Communism, was condemned for four murders and several robberies and arrested in Brazil on March 18, 2007, with the help of Italian and Brazilian police forces. In his capacity as minister of the Interior, Sarkozy extradited Battisti. This decision was heavily criticized by a unified French Socialist party, which appealed for respect of the Mitterrand doctrine that protects former Italian activists from prosecution. The extradition prompted the left wing French newspaper Liberation to label Sarkozy “Unworthy” in its March 19 editorial.
Senator John McCain posed this question on the floor of the Senate today:
To those who believe that the best course is to withdraw, I ask: Can you explain to the American people precisely what you believe to be the consequences of this action? If we follow the timetable included in this bil--to withdraw troops whether or not we are succeeding or failing; regardless of whether the country is secured; irrespective of whether the Iraqis can manage their own affairs alone, or whether the forces of terror and chaos will triumph--if we follow this timetable we risk a catastrophe for American national security interests.
You can read the speech in its entirety here.
Iraqi and Coalition forces have been pressing hard to dismantle al Qaeda's suicide and car bomb infrastructure in and around Baghdad. Over the past week, some success has been made in attacking the leadership of these networks. Three senior commanders of al Qaeda bomb-making cells have been captured. Since Saturday, there have been no major bombings inside Baghdad.
On March 21, U.S. troops from the 82nd Airborne Division captured the leader and the second in command of the deadly Adhamiyah cell, which is believed to be responsible for the murder of 900 Iraqis and the wounding of another 1,950. The cell is believed to be responsible for the majority of the major suicide and truck bombs inside Sadr City. Haytham Kazim Abdallah Al-Shimari, the 'emir' or leader of the cell, was captured with his driver after attempting to avoid a U.S. patrol. Haydar Rashid Nasir Al-Shammari Al-Jafar, Haytham's deputy, and two aides, were captured in a separate incident, also while traveling in Baghdad.
On March 20, the Iraqi security forces announced the capture of Ahmad Farhan, an emir of al Qaeda in Iraq. Farhan and two aides were captured in Abu Ghraib, which is on the outskirts of western Baghdad. Abu Ghraib is the gateway to Anbar province.
Brigadier General Qassem Atta, an Iraqi Army spokesman, "played a videotape showing Farhan confessing to his ties with a wanted man called Abu Omar al-Baghdadi." Abu Omar al-Baghdadi is the leader of al Qaeda's political front, the Islamic State in Iraq. "I receive support from Syria and Jordan and have got four groups with an emir and 25 members for each," said Farhan. He is believed have murdered over 300 Iraqis and kidnapped another 200. These leaders will be interrogated in an effort to dismantle their terror cells and gain knowledge of al Qaeda's organization.
Meanwhile, Iraqi and Coalition forces press the hunt for al Qaeda in Iraq. On March 23, a joint U.S. and Iraqi operation south of Baghdad led to the capture of 31 insurgents and the discovery of a large weapons cache. On March 24, Iraqi National Police found over 470 anti-tank mines in Sadr City after receiving a tip from a resident. U.S. forces killed five al Qaeda and captured another 22 during raids in Taji and Karma over the past four days. In Karma five DShK anti-aircraft heavy machine guns were found. Karma was the scene of the downing of Marine CH-46 helicopter by al Qaeda in February. Coalition forces captured another four al Qaeda in raids in Mosul, Tarmiyah and Fallujah.
As operations against al Qaeda in Iraq continue, Sunni insurgent groups and tribes continue to peal away from al Qaeda in Iraq. Al Qaeda's assassination and intimidation campaign has alienated the terror group from large segments of its base. This process has been ongoing since mid 2005, when U.S. forces watched insurgents battle al Qaeda in faraway regions such as Al Qaim.
As we've reported extensively in the past, the Anbar Salvation Council, a grouping of the Anbar tribes along with elements of insurgent groups such as the 1920s Revolution Brigades and the Islamic Army of Iraq, have organized to oppose al Qaeda. A pitched battle outside Amiriya in early March highlighted the strength of the Anbar Salvation Council.
The Anbar Salvation Council recently claimed killing over 70 al Qaeda, including four Saudis, during battles over the past two weeks in Abu Ghraib. The Zubaie tribe in Abu Ghraib has begun to fight al Qaeda as well, after the terrorist group claimed responsibility for the assassination attempt of Salam al-Zubaie, one of Iraq's two deputy prime ministers. Al Qaeda responded today with a suicide attack in Ramadi, which targeted "a restaurant frequented by Iraqi police on a main road north of Ramadi." Seventeen are reported killed and dozens wounded.
The American media has picked up on this development. Outgoing U.S. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad noted that there are serious negotiations between the insurgent groups and the U.S. "Iraqis are uniting against Al Qaeda," Khalilzad said. "Coalition commanders have been able to engage some insurgents to explore ways to collaborate in fighting the terrorists." The Iraqi government has offered reconciliation and has begun to support groups such as the Anbar Salvation Council.
"The [Iraqi] government has proposed a trial cease-fire period to the 1920 Revolution Brigade, the Islamic Army in Iraq and other factions in western Baghdad," notes the Los Angeles Times. "In return, the Iraqi government would mount a major reconstruction drive in battle-scarred Sunni areas, a senior member of Prime Minister Nouri Maliki's Islamic Dawa Party said."
Reconciliation with the Sunni insurgent groups is the key component to ending Sunni insurgency and beginning the dismantlement of al Qaeda in Iraq. Al Qaeda will do everything in its power to derail the reconciliation process.
From the New York Post: Hostage Gambit, by Amir Taheri.
From Reason: Blue Light Special, by Katherine Mangu-Ward.
From Fox News: Major Mistakes in New York Times Story About Rape in Military, by Rick Leventhal.
From the Danger Room: Rain KO'd Interceptors During Korea Missile Tests, by Noah Shachtman.
From Townhall: An American War? by Dean Barnett.
From ScrappleFace: Iran Blinks Under 'Cordial Pressure' from Tony Blair, by Scott Ott.
Pakistan has officially signed the 'Bajaur Accord' with Taliban operating in the northwestern Tribal agency. The Taliban promised to prevent 'foreign fighters' from settling and stop cross border attacks into Afghanistan in exchange for freedom from attack and arrest by the Pakistani security forces. This is the third official peace agreement Pakistan has signed with the Taliban since 2005. And like the last two, the al Qaeda affiliated Taliban in Bajaur will not honor their agreement. Bajaur serves as an al Qaeda command and control center and borders Kunar province, the most violent in Afghanistan. The Taliban and al Qaeda have staged attacks into Kunar, Nangahar, and even suicide strikes into Kabul from this agency.
On the same day the agreement was signed, the local chapter of the Bajaur Taliban, known as the Tehrik-e-Nifaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (the TNSM, or Movement for the Implementation of Mohammad's Sharia Law), threatened to conduct a suicide campaign against the Pakistani government if the group's leader, Sufi Mohammed, was not released from custody. The TNSM is one of the most violent and extreme Islamist groups in all of Pakistan.
For an overview of the deteriorating situation in Bajaur and the greater Northwest Frontier Province, check out my article in this week's issue of THE WEEKLY STANDARD.
I can't believe I'm still shocked by this kind of thing, but here it is. We have two stories on the farewell press conference of Zalmay Khalilzad, but one is not like the other. The first, from New York Times reporter Alissa J. Rubin, bears the sobering headline "Departing Envoy to Iraq Says Time Is Running Out."
Says Rubin,
Although his comments were dressed in the carefully muted language of diplomacy, Mr. Khalilzad’s overall message was that Iraq faced profound troubles and that American patience for helping Iraq deal with those problems was dwindling.
In his opening statement, his most optimistic evaluation was only a little hopeful. “Success,” he said, is “still possible.”
But, he added, “to sustain U.S. support, things have to move at a certain pace.” And, he said, time is running out.
Then there's the AP story, on the same press conference, by Kim Gamel:
The departing U.S. ambassador said Monday that talks with insurgent representatives are focusing on persuading them to join forces against al-Qaida, hoping to take advantage of anger over attacks increasingly targeting Sunnis as well as Shiites.
In a farewell news conference, Zalmay Khalilzad said he was cautiously optimistic about efforts to bring stability to Iraq.
"In my view, though difficult challenges lie ahead and there is a long way to go, Iraq is fundamentally headed in the right direction and success is possible," he said, pointing to a nearly 25 percent reduction in violence during a six-week-old security crackdown in Baghdad as well as economic progress.
Read both stories and compare--the defeatism of the Times is every bit as disturbing as it is predictable. It's such an important story--slow but steady success in peeling off insurgent groups and turning them against al Qaeda--but the Times barely mentions it between editorializing on the ambassador's tone and listing the day's insurgent attacks.
On April 14, 2004, in Karabilah, Iraq, Cpl. Jason Dunham threw himself on a grenade to save the lives of his fellow Marines. For that, Dunham was posthumously awarded the Medal of Honor--one of only two U.S. servicemen to receive the award since the Iraq war started in March 2003.
According to the citation:
Corporal Dunham led his Combined Anti-Armor Team towards the engagement to provide fire support to their Battalion Commander's convoy, which had been ambushed as it was traveling to Camp Husaybah. As Corporal Dunham and his Marines advanced, they quickly began to receive enemy fire. Corporal Dunham ordered his squad to dismount their vehicles and led one of his fire teams on foot several blocks south of the ambushed convoy. Discovering seven Iraqi vehicles in a column attempting to depart, Corporal Dunham and his team stopped the vehicles to search them for weapons. As they approached the vehicles, an insurgent leaped out and attacked Corporal Dunham. Corporal Dunham wrestled the insurgent to the ground and in the ensuing struggle saw the insurgent release a grenade. Corporal Dunham immediately alerted his fellow Marines to the threat. Aware of the imminent danger and without hesitation, Corporal Dunham covered the grenade with his helmet and body, bearing the brunt of the explosion and shielding his Marines from the blast.
On March 23, the U.S. Navy announced that it would further honor Dunham by naming the Navy's newest Arleigh Burke class destroyer after the fallen Marine. Here's the official story from the Navy.
(HT Op-For)
From the Wall Street Journal: Iran's act of war against our British allies, by the editors.
From the San Diego Union Tribune: Engineer said to take U.S. military secrets, by Matt Krasnowski.
From the Danger Room: Brutal Chinese Weapon, Tailor-Made for Insurgents, by David Hambling.
From the Atlanta Journal Constitution: Army general upbeat on Iraq, by Moni Basu.
From the New York Post: The Next Threats, by Peter Brookes.
From the Times: Russia is Europe's natural ally, by Vladimir Putin.
The Baghdad Order Of Battle as of March 26, 2007.
Click map to view.
With the passing of the four year anniversary of the commencement of Operation Iraqi Freedom, Iraqi and Coalition security forces continue to press with reestablishing security inside the capital and the outer Baghdad belts. The Baghdad Security plan continues to show signs of progress. Sectarian murders have been dramatically reduced inside Baghdad, as have the mass casualty suicide attacks which once plagued the city on a regular basis. Al Qaeda is still able to conduct suicide and car bomb attacks inside the city, but the effects of these attacks have been dramatically reduced.
In the past, the most devastating bombs were placed on large trucks, dump trucks, fuel tankers, and other large vehicles, and driven into open markets to kill as many Shia as possible. Mohammad Fadhil, an Iraqi blogger who lives in Baghdad, notes that the number of checkpoints in the city are increasing rapidly and are having an effect in reducing major attacks. "With the constant force buildup many streets now host multiple checkpoints, both fixed and mobile," says Fadhil. "All are positioned in a manner that allows soldiers in one to have visual contact with those in the next one. From my personal experience I can tell that the men staffing the checkpoints do not take their job lightly."
There have been no major changes to the disposition of U.S. or Iraq forces inside Baghdad. The U.S. still has three of the five combat brigades and an aviation combat brigade to deploy in support of the security operation. The U.S. 3rd Brigade Combat Team from the 3rd Infantry Division has been reported as being in Iraq, however there is no information on the location of this brigade. It remains unclear whether the brigade will be moved into Baghdad or deploy into the provinces--perhaps Diyala--to pursue al Qaeda.
The Coalition and Iraqi government are also in the process of retraining and redeploying the Iraqi National Police. In 2006, the majority of National Police units were infiltrated with militias. Their deployment inside Baghdad without Coalition oversight partially led to the failure of the previous Baghdad security plan--Operation Together Forward.
The Coalition created Operation Quicklook, a program designed to purge the police battalions of militia and insurgents, issue new uniforms and identification badges, and retrain and reequip the forces for urban combat and security operations. Phase I was inspections, Phase II is re-bluing, re-equipping, replacements (purge) and Brigade training, Phase III will be field training/ops, and Phase IV is when the Ministry of the Interior takes over Phase I thru III. The most heavily infiltrated brigades were put through Quicklook II first. The 8th Brigade of the 2nd Iraqi Police Division lost over 40 percent of its ranks; the 4th Brigade of the 1st Iraqi Police Division was reduced by 30 percent. One year ago only one brigade commander and two battalion commanders were Sunni. Today, 4 of 9 brigade commanders and 13 of 27 battalion commanders are Sunni. Half of the brigades have gone through Quicklook II., and at least three are now serving inside Baghdad along with other police units that haven't yet gone through the program.
The deployment of Iraqi and U.S. forces inside Baghdad may be having some impact on al Qaeda. "Over the last month, officials said that under Operation Law Enforcement more than 100 Al Qaeda operatives were killed or captured in the Baghdad area," notes the Middle East Newline. Al Qaeda is said to be fleeing Baghdad as the security plan expands throughout the city.
Al Qaeda in Iraq's most dangerous weapons remain the car and suicide bombs. Over the past week, al Qaeda conducted a steady stream of attacks inside Baghdad. The targets have been members of the Iraqi security services and the Shia community. Al Qaeda seeks to break the will of the security forces and incite the Shia to conduct reprisal attacks on Sunnis. The attacks have not been as deadly as was seen prior to the implementation of the Baghdad Security Plan.
This week, one major attack was reported inside Baghdad--a truck bomb that was aimed at a police outpost in the Doura district. Twenty were killed, including 16 police, and another 26 were wounded. Another major attack was aimed at Salam al-Zubaie, one of Iraq's two deputy prime ministers. Zubaie, who is a Sunni, was targeted at his mosque in Baghdad, and was wounded in the attack. The lead suspect is a member of his security detail, a relative of Zubaie who was detained as an insurgent and subsequently released at Zubaie's request. Al Qaeda in Iraq claimed responsibility for the attack.
Outside Baghdad, both al Qaeda and the Coalition are vying for supremacy in the flash point provinces of Anbar and Diyala. Coalition forces and the local tribes of the Anbar Salvation Council have begun clearing operations in the al Qaeda sanctuary of Ramadi. On March 20, the Anbar Salvation Council conducted one such operation in central Ramadi. Over 500 Iraqi police were involved. Forty-five suspected insurgents were detained during the operation, while one civilian was killed during an IED attack. Police "confiscated propaganda material and discovered several caches containing assault rifles, machine guns, and mortar and artillery shells used to produce improvised explosive devices." On March 26, U.S. forces, along with Iraqi police and Army units, began a large scale clearing op in western Ramadi. The violence in Ramadi has been halved since February due to the cooperation between the tribes, the Iraqi security forces, and the U.S. military.
Al Qaeda has been conducting its own dirty offensive in Anbar. On March 24, police in Ramadi seized a truck carrying "five 1000-gallon barrels filled with chlorine and more than two tons of explosives." The truck was believed to have been aimed at the Jazeera police station, and the driver was detained and is being interrogated. Al Qaeda has conducted seven suicide chlorine attacks this year, including five in Anbar province. Thirty-two were killed in the attacks and over 600 were poisoned by the chlorine gas.
Diyala remains a major base of operations for al Qaeda. A major operation to clear Diyala is in the pipeline, according to CBN News. "Sources say the initial plans involve three distinct strikes from three different directions. The goal is to destroy enemy training facilities and prevent al-Qaeda forces from escaping," notes Erick Stakelbeck. "The insurgents are left with two choices--either to stand and fight or to retreat into Iran--at which point, they're Iran's problem," according to Daveed Gartenstein-Ross. During an operation last week, American forces freed over 200 hostages in Muqdadiya. Many of those freed were Iraqi police. Al Qaeda has been working in Diyala province to dismantle the police force, which poses a major threat to their rule.
Iraqis living in Diyala are asking the Iraqi government to fight al Qaeda and prevent the province from "turning Diyala cities [into the next] Taliban emirate," notes Al Saabah. "Citizens said that the situation in the cities of Baquba, Muqdadyia, Khalis and Bald Ruz are turning into a major humanity disaster, especially after al Qaeda issued a list of all forbidden activities [including] working at governmental offices, ownership of satellite and internet sets, as well as the destruction of mobile phone towers."
Meanwhile, the Iraqi government and Coalition forces have kept up the pressure on Muqtada al Sadr, the leader of the Mahdi Army, and his backers in Iran. Sadr's militia is "breaking into splinter groups," the Associated Press reports. About 3,000 Mahdi fighters are said to be "financed directly by Iran and no longer loyal" to Sadr. Hundreds from Sadr's splintered army have "crossed into Iran for training by the elite Quds force." Qais al-Khazaal, a former aide of Sadr, is said to be leading the Iranian backed faction. The rest of the Mahdi Army is currently in reconciliation talks with the Iraqi government.
The Coalition had a big break in getting to the bottom of the Karbala raid in January, which resulted in the kidnapping and subsequent murder of five American soldiers. Coalition forces captured Qais Khazali, his brother Laith Khazali, and several other members of the Khazali network. Khazali "has been a spokesperson for Muqtada al Sadr, and is commonly referred to as his senior aide," notes IraqSlogger. An American military intelligence official tells us that Khazali is a member of Iran's Qods force, which is believed to be behind the Karbala attack.
Iran continues to interfere with Coalition and Iraqi efforts to secure Iraq. On March 23, naval elements from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps captured 15 British sailors and marines in Iraqi waters in the Shatt al Arab waterway. The British servicemen had completed a boarding mission and were subsequently surrounded by the IRGC navel forces. The Brits have been transported back to Tehran and there are rumors they will be prosecuted for espionage. This came as the United Nations Security Council passed Resolution 1747, which placed sanctions on Iran for its failure to halt its nuclear enrichment program. Iran is likely looking to bargain for the release of senior Qods Force members captured in Irbil last year. Over 300 members of the Iranian intelligence forces are said to be in U.S. custody in Iraq.
As we have stressed in the past, the new Iraqi security plan is still in its infancy, and it is too soon to know if the operations will succeed or fail. The initial signs are encouraging, but the enemy always retains the ability to adjust their tactics. The fracturing of the Mahdi Army is a positive indicator for success in Baghdad, however it is unclear if the Iranian backed group will step up attacks in the city. Sadr's political power has waned while he remains in Iran, however his return to Iraq could signal a change. Iran continues to arm and train militias inside Iraq. Al Qaeda's support base in Diyala must be broken. There are indications that al Qaeda is being sidelined in Anbar as the Sunni tribes and former insurgents take the fight to al Qaeda in Ramadi. The Iraqi government and Multinational Forces-Iraq must remain agile to deal with these threats, and must remain on the offensive in the provinces to keep al Qaeda on its heels.
Marine General Peter Pace, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has wrapped up a four-day visit to China that included jaunts to the Nanjing Military Region and the Shenyang Military Region, where he examined an Su-27 fighter bomber and observed Chinese land-combat exercises.
During a press conference at the American Embassy in Beijing on Friday, Pace said that he had held “good, open, candid and calm” talks with his Chinese counterpart, General Liang Guanglie, Defense Minister Cao Gangchuan, and General Guo Boxiong, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission. Pace suggested that a hot line between the two militaries could be helpful, and said he had agreed to study a Chinese proposal to send cadets to West Point and to conduct joint humanitarian and rescue-at-sea exercises.
Pace said he had urged his Chinese counterparts to be more transparent about the country’s military intentions:
I used the example of the anti-satellite test as how sometimes the international community can be confused, because it was a surprise, and it wasn’t clear what their intent was. And when things are not clear, and there are surprises, then it tends to confuse people and raise suspicions.
Pace noted further that his host had given him no details on the test, nor did they explain to him their intentions in conducting it.
On China’s declared military budget, which will increase by 17.8 percent to almost $45 billion this year, Pace had this to say:
It is important to know not only how much of a nation’s resources are being put into the budget, but what is that money buying, what is the intent of that buying.
This portion of Pace’s message seems to have been lost in translation by the Chinese media, which failed to include the above-quoted remarks in their coverage of the press conference.
Xinhua’s Chinese-language report, reproduced verbatim by People’s Daily, carries the title “Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Pace: China Is Not A Threat.” The piece leads with the statement “Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Peter Pace, currently visiting China, says that China is not a threat despite its sizable military.” It goes on to say “Pace indicated that the two sides agreed to continue discussions toward establishing a hotline between the two militaries” to prevent future misunderstandings. There is no reference to Pace’s call for more transparency in China’s military.
Pace’s call for greater transparency also fails to appear in the report in the English-language China Daily, titled “Pace: China-US hotline to help build trust.”
Also conspicuously absent from Xinhua’s Chinese-language report is mention of Pace’s statements concerning Taiwan. Xinhua’s English report, on the other hand, devotes four paragraphs to the subject. Titled “Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff sees no threat from China,” this version states:
In response to Xinhua’s question whether the United States will proceed with plans to sell missiles to Taiwan, Pace said, “I don’t know the specifics of the particular arms arrangement.”
In late February, the U.S. Department of Defense announced that it planned to sell to Taiwan more than 400 missiles worth $421 million U.S. dollars. The proposed sale will include Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air missiles, Maverick missiles, as well as spare parts and maintenance equipment.
Pace said, “I do know that my country is determined to help find a proper peaceful solution to the Taiwan issue.”
He said the U.S. government would adhere to the one-China policy and three U.S.-China communiqués.
The English-language China Daily report, on the other hand, mentions Taiwan only briefly. It quotes Pace as saying “President Bush said he doesn’t support Taiwan independence.”
Senator McCain called into Bill Bennett’s “Morning In America,” today. Said McCain, “Given the situation that is going to be on the floor of the Senate, I am going to head back first thing tomorrow morning, and try and beat back this new recipe for defeat that the Democrats are trying to hoist off on the American people.”
And here's the rest of the interview:
Stuart Bowen Jr, the special inspector general for Iraq Reconstruction, testified on Capitol Hill on Thursday. Bowen has been a harsh critic of the incompetence, disorganization, and waste that has characterized U.S. reconstruction efforts in Iraq, which he has documented in a series of scathing reports since his appointment twenty months ago.
Nonetheless, after having returned from his latest trip to Iraq last week, he now feels “cautious optimism . . . something that I had not returned from Iraq with . . . over the last twenty months.”
As he put it: “It’s been about twenty months since I have returned from Iraq with a sense of cautious optimism. I have that now.”
Below are some highlights from the hearing.
MR. BOWEN: Good. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Chairman Lieberman, ranking member Collins, members of the committee, thank you for this opportunity to address you today on the important issues raised by our Latest Lessons Learned report which contains an extensive review of program and project management in Iraq reconstruction.
But before I begin, let me briefly summarize what I learned in my last trip to Iraq. I returned last week, my fifteenth since I was appointed three years ago, and I returned with a sense of cautious optimism about the progress in the Baghdad security plan. I met with the senior leadership, across-the-board military, and in the embassy -- and, in particular, had very good visits with General Petraeus. And what I learned across-the-board is that the preliminary results of this latest initiative in the Baghdad security plan have been positive.
And so I wanted to begin my discussion by saying that -- that cautious optimism is a good sign, and something that I had not returned from Iraq with, I guess over the last 20 months.
SEN. LIEBERMAN: I appreciate your beginning with that -- that's good news. And your reaction was qualitatively different than on the previous visits you had made -- and you said you've made fifteen visits to Iraq?
MR. BOWEN: Yes, sir.
SEN. LIEBERMAN: In the last 20 months?
MR. BOWEN: In the last three years -- but it's been about 20 months since I have returned from Iraq with a sense of cautious optimism -- I have that now.
SEN. LIEBERMAN: Last week -- and you've been there 15 times. But when you say that you came
back cautiously optimistic and you had a more positive reaction to what you saw than you have in the last 20 months, I take it seriously and significantly. And I think most people who have followed your work do, because you have gained a reputation as a straight talker. You're not a spinmeister if I might say so.
So, obviously, I'm encouraged by that. But I wanted to ask you to just talk in a little more detail. What did you see that brought you back from your last -- most recent trip to Iraq cautiously optimistic about how our cause was proceeding there?
MR. BOWEN: Well, first of all, what I experienced in my visits with senior leadership was a different tone, a more optimistic view of how the Iraqis are responding at this phase, differing from how they responded during Operation Forward Together I and II last year. And let me also say that the cautious optimism applies both to how the Baghdad security plan is moving forward on the military side and how the embassy is moving forward with its strategy in Iraq.
To the first, what I saw every morning at the battle update assessment briefing was a true and effective and progressive coordination of the Baghdad security plan between General Petraeus and General Odierno, the operational commander of MNCI. February was a tough month. Let's be clear. I mean, things have not gotten better in an instant, and that's not what I'm saying. What I'm saying is that although February was the worst month for VBIEDs, for example, by the last week, the number of attacks had dropped significantly. And that has continued to be the case into March.
SEN. LIEBERMAN: In Baghdad.
MR. BOWEN: In Baghdad, and that is also true with insurgent attacks within Baghdad. And I noticed it myself, you know. Having been there so often, I have a sense of the security situation in the Green Zone itself, and I noticed a difference just in my immediate surroundings. I traveled a couple of times into the Red Zone and sensed some difference as well. I visited a project -- the fire brigade headquarters, down about 10 minutes northeast of the Green Zone -- and also visited the -- (inaudible) -- and got some sense there of a incipient change for the better.
On the embassy side, what I saw was real progress on the PRT program. General Olsen, who's the leader of that, is an excellent manager, and it has turned into a lesson learned itself about jointness. I think its own story will be one, I think, that we'd like to tell in our report at the end of the year, the story of Iraq reconstruction, because it is exhibit A for how a Goldwater-Nichols- like reform can be experienced. It is fundamentally a mixture of DOD, State and AID assets with a mixed mission as well.
SEN. LIEBERMAN: With a lot of local input, too.
MR. BOWEN: With a lot of local input.
SEN. LIEBERMAN: Yeah, right.
MR. BOWEN: I think there's so many elements to the story of the PRTs that are important to learn from for future post-conflict contingency planning.
So, in sum, I have a sense of cautious optimism but definitely a wait-and-see attitude about that with respect to the developments of the Baghdad security plan. As I tell people, there are 1,000 problems in Iraq a | | | |
