Iraq: Splintering the Mahdi Army, 1920s Revolution's Brigades

Yesterday's suicide campaigns in Baghdad and Khalis led to the most deadly day since the beginning of the Baghdad Security operation. The Baghdad attack, where two suicide bombers detonated their vests in a largely Shia market, has resulted in 83 murdered, with another 138 wounded. The Khalis attacks led to another 70 killed, and scores more wounded.

Combined with Wednesday's suicide bombings in Tal Afar, which provoked off duty police and militia to conduct reprisal attacks against Sunnis, al Qaeda has been very successful in stoking sectarian fires with mass casualty suicide strikes. Stopping these attacks will be the Coalition's greatest challenge over the next several months.

"Al-Qaeda in Iraq elements once again displayed their total disregard for human life, carrying out barbaric actions against innocent Iraqi citizens in an effort to reignite sectarian violence and to undermine recent Iraqi and Coalition successes in improving security in Baghdad," General David Petraeus said today in a statement on the recent bombings.
"These horrific attacks demonstrated al Qaeda's complete rejection of respect for life itself and the Coalition joins Iraqi leaders in condemning these latest acts of cold-blooded murder."

A major success that has helped to keep sectarian tensions at bay (deaths in Baghdad are at the lowest rate since March of 2005) has been the sidelining of Muqtada al Sadr and the fracturing of his Mahdi Army. We've noted this process has been ongoing for almost a year, and the Sadr's flight to Iran has destroyed his command and control over the militia. "Sadr has had trouble both leading and controlling his movement from afar, [Pentagon Officials] said, as his absence has encouraged subordinates and earlier rivals to move in on his turf," the Washington Post notes today. "It's clear that he does not control all the organization. There are splinter groups that don't answer and won't answer to him, particularly since he is in Tehran now," a senior Pentagon official told the Post.

Stars & Stripes reports that elements of the Mahdi Army are filtering back into Sadr City in Baghdad, though the Mahdi Army fighters have not openly confronted U.S. forces inside Sadr's stronghold. While EFP [Explosively Formed Projectiles] attacks are increasing in some neighborhoods, overall the number of EFP attacks are down. U.S. forces just captured another member of an EFP cell in Sadr City.

While many view the splintering of the Mahdi Army as a negative, the fact is that the most extreme elements were never going to accept a political solution, as they answer to their Iranian masters. The more moderate elements are now free from Sadr and Iran's influence. The Mahdi split has weakened Sadr politically and has exposed his operation as an Iranian foil. Sadr has portrayed himself as an Iraqi patriot, but the longer he stays in Iran while the Iranian Qods Force cannibalizes his militia, the more his influence in Iraq will wane.

Sadr, for his part, has issued a statement through his representative in Najaf calling for Iraqis to protest on April 9, the date of their liberation from Saddam's rule. "I call on everyone to demonstrate on April 9 in Najaf on the anniversary of the US occupation," said Sheikh Abdul Hadi al-Muhamadawi during Friday prayers in Kufa. Sadr has put himself in the position of essentially defending Saddam Hussein.