Our Man in South America?
Hugo Chavez is an outsized personality with a bit of Don King about him. His foolish policies, anti-Americanism and devotion to a walking cadaver earn him a tremendous amount of attention in the United States. Less noticed, however, is that his attempt to remake Latin America after his own image has led to opposition from the region's largest player: Lula Inacio DaSilva. The Los Angeles Times reports that Lula is traveling around South America seeking to promote Brazil's role as leader of the region. He is at pains to make clear that this is not aimed at Chavez:
Though Lula has denied any effort to undermine Chavez's petro-diplomacy, South American analysts see the Brazilian president responding to his Venezuelan counterpart's oil-funded strategy to become a regional power broker — a role Lula believes should rightly be his because his nation is Latin America's largest and most populous.
"Brazil is returning step by step to the political initiative," said Julio Burdman, a political analyst here. "That includes balancing the aspirations of Chavez to lead the region."
The Brazilian president is said to be troubled by Latin America's creeping division into pro- and anti-Chavez blocs. These splits also reflect starkly differing attitudes toward Washington, Chavez's archenemy.
The ostensibly warm relations between Chavez and Lula mask an intense competition for political and economic influence, experts say. Venezuela has used oil revenue to win allies, but Lula is employing diplomacy and his prestige as an up-from-the-factory former union leader who is now Brazil's widely respected head of state.
Away from the attention of the U.S. media, Chavez and Lula have been clashing over energy for a while--at least since Brazil's Petrobras lost much of its investment in Bolivia when Evo Morales followed Chavez's advice and lead by nationalizing the country's gas sector. Since then, a rivalry between the two over hydrocarbons and ethanol has taken shape. After a regional energy summit last week, it looks like Lula won hands down. Brazil blocked Chavez's effort to create an 'OPEC' for South America's natural gas exporters (Argentina, Venezuela and Bolivia), and forced Chavez to back down on his opposition to Brazil's ethanol partnership with the United States:
Ethanol, it seems, is main ingredient for a new geopolitical relationship that has arguably increased US influence in South America while presenting real possibilities of a global presence for Brazil.
Almost immediately after Bush's visit to Brasilia, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and Cuban leader Fidel Castro decried the evils of a global ethanol market, claiming it would drive up the price of food around the world. The world's poor would inevitably suffer, they said.
This argument, however, was absent from the regional energy conference held on 16 April in Venezuela, just two weeks after Lula visited Bush at Camp David. Rather than use the forum where 12 South American heads of state were present to attack Lula, Chavez offered his support for ethanol as a regional energy effort.
And in the middle of this back-and-forth between Brazil and Venezuela, Lula found time to host Bush and to travel to Camp David--in a matter of just a few weeks. What do you suppose motivated the White House to spend such time on Lula, and to put such priority on an ethanol deal with Brazil?
When it comes to ties to the United States and the Bush White House, Lula's Brazil will never be Tony Blair's Britain. But the U.S. has developed a good working relationship with Brazil. At its core lies a significant common interest: the desire to reduce Hugo Chavez's influence in Latin America. And common interests are often the foundation of very productive relationships.