Just today, my friends at Atlantic Community--a new Berlin-based online think tank--published the last installment of an interesting three-part survey gauging how 14 think tank experts from ten different European countries assess the potential consequences of a quick U.S. troop withdrawal from Iraq by the Summer of 2009 (somewhere along the lines of the "Edwards Plan"). In a nutshell, the surveyed analysts expressed fears that such a precipitous move could expose the European homeland to increased terrorist risks, lead to Iraq’s collapse and fragmentation, and also result in wider regional instability (i.e., the rise of Iran), further refugee flows, higher oil prices, and increased American isolationism. Geographically, Europe is of course much closer to Iraq and Iran than the United States. Here are the key findings of Atlantic Community’s survey:

1. Europeans Want America to Stay in Iraq
While the American public and policy debate revolves largely around exit strategies and "redeployment," European policy analysts believe that American troops should remain in Iraq for the foreseeable future. A sudden withdrawal or public announcement of a timetable was considered dangerous by a majority of those questioned. In addition, Europeans feel that America is not doing enough to draw Syria and Iran into the nation-building process.

2. Europe Should Help, But Not Follow US Lead
European analysts suggest either pursuing policies in Iraq independent of prevailing US wisdom, or hinging level of involvement on America’s willingness to cede control. Militarily, there is little remaining sense of obligation to support the United States. Several respondents recommend that France mediate discussions among internal factions in Iraq. Efforts could focus on dialogue with powerful stakeholders to reinvigorate Iraqi nationalism and reduce sectarian violence. European diplomatic offensive involving Iran and Syria is seen as essential, but experts are also focused on Turkey. Maintaining peace in Kurdistan could be encouraged through EU membership negotiations.

3. Premature US Withdrawal Would Threaten Europe
European analysts believe that American withdrawal from Iraq would spell disaster. Increased refugee flows, regional instability, cross-border violence, higher oil prices, terrorism within Europe, and increased American isolationism were the main predictions noted by our respondents. "With a weakened United States, geopolitical vacations for Europe would be over."

While many strategic analysts and politicians in Europe are fully aware of the dire fall-out if Washington were to adopt an "apres-nous-le-deluge" approach in Iraq, European public opinion, in contrast, is very critical of the U.S. troop presence there and leaves Europe’s political leaders virtually no margin to provide additional political, economic, or military support for Iraq’s stabilization and reconstruction above current levels. For far too long, unfortunately, European public opinion has viewed the Iraq war as a lost cause, a quagmire caused by an unwarranted unilateral U.S. military invasion, and that is now Bush’s problem to solve. Europeans should not forget, though, that they, too, have a major stake in the future of Iraq.

Check out the full survey here.