Putting the "Early" in "Early States"

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10:50 AM, Oct 17, 2007 • By MATTHEW CONTINETTI

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Be sure to check out this Soren Dayton post on the possible consequences of a December 11, 2007, New Hampshire primary. Dayton writes:

On the GOP side, this opens up the game much, much more. Mitt Romney was hoping to boomerang with Iowa. But, in RCP, Romney is only +4 percent. While his organization is either the best or second best (behind John McCain), who finishes first may well come down to a crap shoot between McCain, Romney, and Rudy Giuliani. It seems unlikely that Fred Thompson will be a first-tier competitor in New Hampshire. That means that he will be competing with, perhaps, Mike Huckabee for fourth.

If the New Hampshire primary happens in December, and the Iowa caucus takes place as scheduled on January 3, 2008, does that intensify or diminish the early-state slingshot effect? Something tells me it actually would diminish the slingshot. Which probably would hurt this guy. And which probably would help this guy.

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