Shock and Awe Returns

With their F15s collecting dust, the Air Force shows that it still has teeth.

U.S. warplanes unleashed one of the most intense airstrikes of the Iraq war Thursday, dropping 40,000 pounds of explosives in a thunderous 10-minute onslaught on suspected al-Qaida in Iraq safe havens in Sunni farmlands south of Baghdad.

The mighty barrage-recalling the Pentagon's "shock and awe" raids during the 2003 invasion-appeared to mark a significant escalation in a countrywide offensive launched this week to try to cripple remaining insurgent strongholds.

But it also fits into the endgame strategy of last year's U.S. troop buildup, which seeks to regain control of Baghdad and surrounding areas as a buffer zone for the capital. U.S. commanders are now attempting to subdue the last insurgent footholds around Baghdad before the Pentagon faces a possible reduction in troop strength.

Some of the additional 30,000 troops have been pulled out and the remainder are expected to depart by June, military officials have told The Associated Press. With insurgents still holding pockets south of the capital in the north-including areas around the key northern city of Mosul-the military apparently wants to take the remaining four months or so to use the expanded military muscle against al- Qaida.

The zoomies built one hell of a strike package--four F-16s and two B-1 bombers--to handle the knife work, which amounted to some 40,000lbs of iron being dropped on 40 aim points. Now for those of you unfamiliar with targeting, that's an awful lot, especially for what is supposed to be non-kinetic COIN ops. And it reinforces what U.S. commanders have been saying consistently since surging forces started to turn the tide last summer: al Qaeda may be down, but they're not out.

While I haven't had the time to ping my comrades out in theater, I'm tentatively drawing the following conclusions here. Al Qaeda is running out of places to hide. That means what's left of the group can't spread out like they used to, and are forced to gather in what few sanctuaries they have left. That makes them easy to target and eliminate, which brings us to yesterday's operation.

Air ops are often a precursor to ground ops, and AQI is still very much a presence in the fertile crescent, so I wouldn't be surprised if we saw some serious Diyala-style bug hunts in the near future.