Texas law allows early voting in its primaries. And counties in Texas experiencing the largest increases in pre-election day balloting compared to four years ago are also those with demographic characteristics most likely to support Barack Obama. Polling shows the Illinois Senator does well among blacks, upper-income individuals and those with college degrees. Senator Clinton performs better among Hispanics.

Using data supplied from the Texas Secretary of State, City University of New York political scientist Brian Arbour shows more Texans are voting early in counties with higher concentrations of blacks, well-educated, and higher-income individuals in 2008 compared to the same time in 2004. Conversely, early voting is lower in counties with larger Hispanic populations--where Senator Clinton needs a big boost.

We don’t know how these people are voting yet--only that more voters are turning out early in what look like Obama strongholds. Election Day voting next Tuesday could shift the turnout in these counties as well. But in a race that looks like a statistical dead heat today based on the Real Clear Politics average, these early voting trends seem promising for the Illinois Senator.

Arbour agrees:

These numbers don’t prove anything yet. But, they would like these numbers better at Obama headquarters than at Clinton headquarters.

HT: The Monkey Cage