The U.S. military continues to "communicate" with the Mahdi Army. Today, the military conducted a major raid inside Sadr City. "The U.S. said it was targeting 'criminal elements' responsible for mortar and EFP attacks on U.S. and Iraqi troops," the AP reported. Sixteen "criminals" were captured and one killed during the raid.

The U.S. military and Iraqi security forces are stepping up the campaign to convince Muqtada al Sadr to extend a six-month old ceasefire. Just in the last few days, Multinational Forces Iraq issued a press release noting the increase in EFP attacks and raided the town of Horriya after reports the Mahdi Army was inciting attacks. An Iraqi colonel claimed the Mahdi Army was behind an IED attack against Polish troops in Diwaniyah.

Sadr, for his part, has launched an internal debate over whether the ceasefire should be extended or dropped. One of the five committees formed suggested dropping the ceasefire, citing Iraqi military and police attacks on the Mahdi Army in Diwaniyah. He has now set a deadline - February 23 - to announce his decision.

Multinational Forces Iraq is not-so-subtly warning Sadr that canceling the ceasefire will make his Mahdi Army fair game--and Sadr likely will extend the ceasefire rather than be blamed for rolling back the security progress. But until then, he is likely to try and maximize political concessions from the Iraqi government and Multinational Forces Iraq.