November 30, 2009 • Vol. 15, No. 11
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« Hillary to Obama: Be a Man | The Blog home page | Is Pelosi Out of Touch on Gas Prices? »

PA Bounce

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Says Gallup, "Support for Clinton is significantly higher in these post-primary interviews than it was just prior to her Pennsylvania victory, clearly suggesting that Clinton's win there is the catalyst for her increased national support." The pollsters also add that "Clinton is running two points ahead of McCain, 47% to 45%, while Obama is running one point behind, 45% to 46%."

Meanwhile Hillary is running three points behind Obama in the latest poll out of Indiana, but 21 percent of voters have yet to make up their minds. Given that undecideds have broken heavily in Clinton's favor in most of the recent contests, it's certainly possible that she carries the state by a comfortable margin.

Which isn't to say I see anyway she actually wins this thing, but given where things are now, she should win in Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia and Puerto Rico. It's just a shame the DNC moved the Puerto Rico primary from June 7 to June 1. This was explained as a "typo," but the move clearly helps Obama. Americans aren't comfortable with the notion that a team, or campaign, can be eliminated despite winning the last contest in a series. Obama will have a much better chance of closing the race out with wins in Montana and South Dakota, now the last two states scheduled to vote.

Still, Clinton will have inflicted a maximum amount of damage (short of inflicting defeat) by setting the narrative for coverage of the general election. There will be doubts about Obama's electability, his support among the white working class, and among Latinos. There wasn't supposed to be any doubt this year.

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