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Some New Perspectives on Clinton's Decline

10:31 AM, Apr 9, 2008 • By GARY ANDRES
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It's easy to lose sight of the dramatic shifts in the Democratic nomination contest that have occurred just since January. This new Gallup study provides some useful perspective on what a long strange trip it's been in the Clinton/Obama contest.

Consider these moves in the polls in less than three months:

"In mid-January, the Gallup Poll Daily tracking of Democratic preferences found Clinton leading Obama by a 20 percentage-point margin, 48% vs. 28%. More recently, Obama has been in front, with his lead over Clinton reaching 10 points (52% vs. 42%) in late March."

This most recent Gallup survey also shows that about 1 in 4 Democrats say they've switched their allegiance at least once since January. A lot more Democrats switched from Clinton to Obama (19%) than jumped from Obama to Clinton (7%).

I expect the number of switchers will increase exponentially in the next few weeks as the Obama campaign continues to close the gap in Pennsylvania and widen his lead in other states, including North Carolina.