May 19, 2008 • Vol. 13, No. 34 Download Now! (pdf)

 

COVER
A Counterinsurgency Grows in Khost
by Ann Marlowe

EDITORIAL
Countering Iran
by Reuel Marc Gerecht

SCRAPBOOK
JFK's foibles, the PC police, etc.

ARTICLES
Gloomy Republicans
by Fred Barnes

The War Over the War (cont.)
by Reihan Salam

We're All Gun Nuts Now
by John McCormack

What to Expect When You're Expecting...
by Lawrence B. Lindsey

FEATURES
They Backed Boris
by James Kirchick

Jeremiah Wright's 'Trumpet'
by Stanley Kurtz

BOOKS & ARTS
Trouble Down Below
by Mark Falcoff

The Strategist
by Daniel Sullivan

Hollywood Hybrid
by Joe Queenan

Weapon of Choice
by Joan Frawley Desmond

'Orfeo' at 400
by Algis Valiunas

A $uperhero's Saga
by John Podhoretz

CASUAL
Agenbites
by Joseph Bottum

CORRESPONDENCE
Rev. Wright, patriotic newsman, and more

PARODY
Mars attacks the global candy market


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Grading the Pollsters: Survey USA loses, Zogby Wins?

With the proliferation of public and private polling this election season, one needs a scorecard to keep them all straight -- both in terms of predictions and accountability. Last night’s big winner in terms of accuracy -- at least in North Carolina -- was Zogby. He predicted a 14% Obama win in the Tar Heel state, which turned out to be right on target. His polls also nailed the Pennsylvania race. Zogby was a little off in Indiana. He was one of only a few pollsters to predict a narrow Obama win. And while Clinton did end up winning in the Hoosier state, the margin was much narrower (and closer to the Zogby numbers) than many pre-election polls predicted.

American University political scientist Brian Schaffner posts this interesting chart that evaluates the accuracy of many public polls in yesterday’s two primaries. Turns out Survey USA was the big loser, according to Schaffner. They predicted a Clinton blow out in Indiana and only a 5% Obama win in North Carolina. Schaffner’s chart shows how final predictions from pollsters ARG, PPP, and Insider Advantage worked out in both states.

And as he reminds us, all of the pollsters need a dose of humility and perspective.

"Of course, lest any pollster get a big head, these pollsters have been in the opposite positions (Zogby as the big loser and Survey USA as the big winner) in earlier primaries this year."

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