Surveying the Polls
12:00 PM, May 22, 2008 • By DEAN BARNETT
Rasmussen's daily tracking poll offers some good news today, showing John McCain with a 4 point lead over Barack Obama. While overreacting to each day's numbers is certainly unwise, for sanity's sake well have to seize on and cherish every piece of good news that we can find this cycle.
There's still more good news to be mined on the Rasmussen site. Dick Morris foresees a "GOP senate massacre" this year, one that will possibly be "even greater than the worst of previous GOP years: 1958, 1964, 1974, 1986 and 2006." As you know, I too have foreseen serious troubles for the Republican party this cycle. But if there's one thing I know about politics, it's that Dick Morris is always wrong. So perhaps his essay offers a glimmer of hope.
Sorry, but it's not all sunshine in the polling world. Survey USA, who has generally done a bang-up job this cycle, shows Obama holding a seven point advantage over McCain in Virginia. While I'm no Dick Morris, I think the electoral math gets pretty tricky for the Republican candidate if he can't hold Virginia. The internals of the poll do suggest that Virginians perhaps haven't thought things fully through. According to SUSA, if Obama adds 28,000 square-foot-house-owning populist John Edwards to the ticket, he becomes well nigh unbeatable. Could Virginia really be so crazy for Edwards?