July 7, 2008 -
July 14, 2008 • Vol. 13, No. 41 Download Now! (pdf)

 

EDITORIAL
An Indecent Decision
by Matthew Continetti

SCRAPBOOK
Buckminster Fuller, Justice Anthony Kennedy

ARTICLES
Closing the Enthusiasm Gap
by Stephen F. Hayes

Very Retiring Republicans
by Fred Barnes

McCain, Obama, & the Catholic Vote
by Ryan T. Anderson

History's Fall Guys
by Dean Barnett

Shaken and Stirred Up
by Reuben F. Johnson

A Heaping Bowl of Mush
by Philip Terzian

Laughter at the Supreme Court
by Lee Ross

FEATURES
L'Affaire Enderlin
by Anne-Elisabeth Moutet

BOOKS & ARTS
Talking Politics
by Christopher Hitchens

Isn't That Special?
by Andrew Roberts

Boris the Good
by Andrew Nagorski

After the Fox
by Edward Short

Unholy Thoughts
by Stefan Beck

Speak the Speech
by Judy Bachrach

Rhymers' Dictionary
by John Simon

Keeping Score
by James M. Banner Jr.

Here's My Plan
by Matthew Continetti

Identity Theft
by Edith Alston

Cops on the Case
by Jon L. Breen

CASUAL
Lost in the Personasphere
by Andrew Ferguson

PARODY
Fred Flintstone wins McCain's eco-challenge


« Early Voting in North Carolina – Advantage Obama? | Main | Fred Takes a Pass on AG »

SUSA's Final NC Numbers - Obama by 5

SurveyUSA has released its final batch of North Carolina numbers. In the primary eve SUSA poll, Obama leads by five. Here are some analytical goodies for your Endless Campaign of '08 Scrapbook:

According to SurveyUSA's 8th and final tracking poll, conducted exclusively for ABC11 Eyewitness News, on the final day of the fiercely fought campaign, Senator Barack Obama holds on with 50% of the vote to Senator Hillary Clinton's 45% of those polled…

The popular vote is remarkably stable: In 6 SurveyUSA polls released since Super Tuesday, Obama has polled at 50%, 49%, 49%, 50%, 49%, 50%. The contest is stable among men, where Obama leads by 11. The contest is stable among women, where the two remain tied.

In Charlotte and Western NC, there is the slightest momentum for Clinton. In the Research Triangle, in Southern NC and in Coastal NC, there is slight offsetting momentum to Obama. The net is a wash. If Obama wins, it will be entirely from the 19% of voters who describe themselves as liberal.

Clinton leads by 9 among conservatives and leads by 8 among moderates.

If Obama wins the popular vote, it will be because of his 16-point advantage among liberals. Clinton has increasing momentum among voters age 50 to 64, where she has gone from 30% in January to 51% today, her highest showing.

Among those age 65+, Clinton leads by 20 points; the more seniors who vote, the better Clinton does. But there is offsetting momentum among younger voters, some of whom may be first-time voters, and not all of whom may show-up at the precinct. 1 in 4 of SurveyUSA's likely voters say they have already voted. Among those who say they have already voted, Obama leads by 16 points. Among those who say they will vote on Primary Day, Obama and Clinton are effectively tied.

If one were of a mind too, one could interpret many of these data-points to the Lioness of Tuzla's advantage. Because I'm not a member of the Strange New Respect for Hillary Club, the exercise has little appeal to me, but since I'm blogging this poll first, I should do so anyway. So...

Hillary has reliably outperformed even the most reliable polls. Obama's dependence on young voters who are more likely to eschew the tedium of voting compared to their elderly fellow voters probably explains this phenomenon. Also noteworthy is that Clinton is once again showing impressive momentum among the late deciders. We also have yet more evidence with this poll that Obama's popularity peaked a while ago, and Hillary is now the better liked candidate. The fact that Obama pulls his support from liberals who will support the Democratic ticket anyway is the kind of thing that theoretically might matter to your typical, everyday Super Delegate.

Still, Clinton's only hope is that she outperforms even the good polls once again. She needs the win. But making up five points is a heavy lift. That said, a double digit win in Indiana and a shocking, razor-thin victory in North Carolina could actually change the race. And that scenario, while unlikely, is not out of the question.

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