The New Democratic Party
12:09 PM, Aug 28, 2008 • By MATTHEW CONTINETTI
Thomas B. Edsall reports:
The shattered New Deal coalition offers an opportunity for John McCain. Pew pollster Andrew Kohut points out that, compared with John Kerry in 2004, Obama is under-performing among the much discussed "working-class whites," while he is over-performing among young people, liberal professionals, and African Americans.
The question is, How many members of these groups can Obama bring to the polls on November 4? Edsall quotes polling analyst Nate Silver: "'For each 10 percent increase in African-American turnout, Obama gains approximately 13 electoral votes, and 1 percent in his popular vote margin against John McCain. Even a 10 percent increase is enough to take him from a slight underdog against McCain to a slight favorite, while at higher levels of turnout improvement, Obama becomes the strong favorite.'"
Remember hearing about all the new voters Obama would bring to the polls in places like Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania? Didn't happen. There are a lot of young people, liberal professionals, and African Americans in California. Obama lost there. This is not to say that Obama will lose California in the fall, of course. But the Obama campaign's promises of a wave of new voters that will put their candidate over the top have not been true in the past. Which is reason to be skeptical that they will prove true in the future.