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State of the Race: An Electoral College Tie?

3:34 PM, Sep 25, 2008 • By GARY ANDRES
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Mark Blumenthal updates his battleground state poll of polls this morning. Like Real Clear Politics, he loads new surveys in his modeling every day to produce a new "average" result by state. According to Blumenthal, 12 states now fall into the "toss-up" category:

Four show a statistically insignificant Obama lead: Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania. And in the remaining eight, McCain holds a statistically insignificant lead: Virginia, New Hampshire, Nevada, Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida and West Virginia.

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Mike Allen writes that over the past week Obama has opened up a lead in the presidential horserace.

But as the McCain campaign argued yesterday, averaging a number of polls - like Blumenthal does - gives a more accurate picture of the race.

And here's something to think about. Just for fun, I plugged Blumenthal's winner for each of the 50 states into The American Research Group's electoral calculator, allocating toss-ups based on the albeit "statistically insignificant" leads. Using Blumenthal's estimates, and comparing them to 2004 results, it looks like Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa switch from Republican to Democrat. New Hampshire is the only state that moves from Democrat to Republican.

The result: a 269-269 Electoral College tie.