The Blog

No Change

2:11 PM, Oct 8, 2008 • By MATTHEW CONTINETTI
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Change is in, as you may have noticed. Last night Barack Obama spoke often about how the United States needs "fundamental change." Newt Gingrich's most recent megaseller was called "Real Change." John McCain felt left out of all this change, so around the Republican convention he began telling audiences that "change is coming."

Except it probably won't, at least when it comes to politics. Author Bill Bishop lists the ways in which our politics haven't changed on his entertaining Slate blog. Let us count the ways: Churchgoers are still Republicans, women still vote Democratic, there are fewer truly "independent" voters than you think, and so on. Bishop explains here why, despite this lack of change, the Democrats were able to win big in 2006, and will probably win big again this year:

[T]he tale of 2006 wasn't about big changes. Instead, the election was decided by small shifts that reached across the board. Democrats picked up three points, five points, seven points among each of the demographic or geographic subgroups of the American electorate. Gallup found the 2006 vote to be a 'rising Democratic tide that lifted support in almost all key subgroups.'

BIshop's book is here.