Exit Polls: The Good, the Bad, and the Totally Speculative

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6:20 PM, Nov 4, 2008 • By MARY KATHARINE HAM

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NOTE: If you haven't voted, go vote. These numbers should not discourage anyone, as they have a history of being totally wrong. Please see the handy-dandy, "10 Reasons You Should Ignore Exit Polls" while I begin to obsess over them.

Gawker had the first exit poll numbers, reporting rather small margins for Obama- up 4 in PA, up 2 in VA, up 1 in FL and OH. McCain showed a lead in NC of 2. If true, sounds like decent news, considering Obama supporters are much more likely to respond to exit pollers.

MyDD reports exit poll numbers, allegedly from inside sources, that show devastating data for McCain, pretty much everywhere. But, Obama takes VA by 10? Color me even more skeptical of that than other exit polls.

The McCain camp and state GOP sources that I talk to are far from "stoic" as a CNN report just claimed. They think they have astonishing, record turnout in red parts of all of the important swing states - you name it - Nevada, Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, even New Hampshire. I cannot tell you that what they say they see is enough to give McCain a win. But it should be enough to refute the Obama's set-to-win-huge argument.

In good news, networks have called KY for McCain and VT for Obama. That makes the current electoral vote count 8-3, McCain. Oh, yeah!

IN reelected Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels, which bodes well for the GOP mood in the state.